Fredonia Project Sitrep 009 Us Domestic

FREDONIA PROJECT – SITREP 007: U.S. DOMESTIC AND NATIONAL SECURITY 16-21 JUNE 2025

CABLE ID: 2025-0621-FRED/WASH/SITREP-007

DATE-TIME GROUP: 211800ZJUN25

FROM: EMBASSY OF FREDONIA, WASHINGTON, D.C.

TO: MFA NAGADOCHES

CLASSIFICATION: CONFIDENTIAL // FREDONIAN EYES ONLY

SUBJECT: SITREP: U.S. POLICY DEVELOPMENTS (16-21 JUNE 2025)

SUMMARY:

IN ACCORDANCE WITH MFA DIRECTIVE 1826-APRIL-1, THIS EMBASSY HAS INITIATED A REGULAR SERIES OF ANALYTICAL DISPATCHES REGARDING THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SERIES, DESIGNATED “THE FREDONIA PROJECT,” WILL BE CIRCULATED UNDER STANDARD SITREP PROTOCOL. UNAUTHORIZED PUBLICATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED VIA THIRD-PARTY ENTITY KNOWN AS “THE STEADY STATE.” PRESUMED LEAK. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

Much of the week in the United States, particularly in Washington D.C., was spent discussing Trump’s military parade and the many No Kings protests throughout the country. Comments about the 14 June 2025 parade highlighted the equipment, the squeaks everyone could hear as the tanks rolled down the streets of Washington DC, the very casual marching of the troops, and the anemic turnout. In stark contrast, the organizers of the No Kings protests said that there were 2100 protests across the country with a total of some 5 million attendees. Trump was reported to have been “furious” at the low turnout and to have upbraided Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth about his failed efforts to ensure high turnout.

Fredonia’s Consul General located in Appalachia in the United States, closely followed the No Kings protests in and around her geographic location, and has turned in the following report on those protests:

From Atlanta, Georgia to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and many towns in between, thousands of protesters in Appalachia gathered on June 14, 2025, to protest what they perceive as excesses of the Trump administration and the threat it poses to American democracy.

Many protesters carried signs called for “No Kings”, “No Fascists”, “We the People Serve No Dictator”, “No Kings since 1776”, etc. According to a variety of media reports, protesters voiced opposition to the use of the US military in Los Angeles, government attempts to limit free speech and freedom of assembly, cuts to federal healthcare programs, etc. In West Virginia, one protester said he hoped the protests would spur changes in the government; others raised concerns about Trump spending millions on a single parade while making cuts to programs that serve marginalized communities. A protester in Kentucky said he was disappointed to see his party shift to ideals centered around deceit and division.

The people of Appalachia voted heavily in favor of Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Some of the poorest and least developed counties in the United States are in Appalachia, where many stand to lose federal benefits such as Medicaid and food stamps (SNAP) if the One Big Beautiful Bill is passed by the House and Senate. We will monitor shifting opinions of, and support for, President Trump as cuts in federal programs affecting this region are felt by the people.

Other issues Embassy Fredonia includes this week clearly illustrate the ways in which Donald Trump is putting his America First agenda in place. Notably, he has focused on on immigration, trade, national security and international relations.

Key Actions, Events, and Statements:

Immigration: The Trump administration continued its aggressive focus on immigration. A report updated on June 16, 2025, by the New York City Bar Association detailed a series of executive orders and policy memoranda aimed at reshaping immigration policy. These actions included pursuing the removal of noncitizens, pressuring states and localities to cooperate in immigration enforcement, limiting access to humanitarian relief, and closing the southern border. A fact sheet from the White House on June 4, 2025 (relevant due to its ongoing impact) also highlighted restrictions on the entry of foreign nationals from specific countries deemed high-risk to U.S. national security and public safety.
Trade: On June 16, 2025, the Commerce Department announced an expansion of steel tariffs to include “derivative” products such as refrigerators, freezers, washers, dryers, dishwashers, and stoves, effective June 23. This builds on earlier announcements from June 3, 2025, which saw an increase in tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and derivative products to 50%. The administration’s approach to trade continued to be characterized by unilateral actions and a focus on reducing trade deficits.
International Travel: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Under Secretary for Political Affairs Allison Hooker joined President Trump on travel to Canada from June 15-17, 2025, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagements, though the specifics of these discussions were not detailed in the available information. (Ambassador Comment: Trump left the G-7 unexpectedly, without concluding talks or business with several G-7 leaders who had planned and hoped to meet with him. That included Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who was looking forward to speaking with Trump about relief from sanctions. Additionally, there was a scheduled group meeting on Ukraine which Trump did not attend, as well as a scheduled private talk with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. Talks about Ukraine still took place on Tuesday morning, albeit without the American president. Trump announced that he was leaving to deal with the crisis between Israel and Iran, which now appears to be possible. There was some private commentary that he’d been falling asleep during meetings and did not want to have to deal with issues on Ukraine or its president.)
Drone Policy: Two executive orders signed by President Trump on June 6, 2025 (with continuing implications in this period) aimed at reshaping drone policy. One order focused on protecting national airspace from malicious drone threats, including restricting drone flights over “fixed site facilities” and increasing enforcement against criminal drone use. The other sought to boost the U.S. drone industry by easing international flight restrictions for U.S.-based drone flights and protecting the U.S. drone supply chain from foreign control or espionage.

Negative Effects on Sectors of the Population and/or the Country:

Immigrant Communities and Civil Liberties: The heightened immigration enforcement and restrictions on entry have significant negative effects on noncitizens, asylum seekers, and immigrant communities. Policies like the potential return of “Remain in Mexico” and expanded expedited removal procedures without judicial review can lead to family separations, increased detentions in potentially “barbaric” facilities, and limited access to legal counsel, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. There are also concerns about the chilling of speech and dissent on college campuses due to actions targeting foreign nationals and academic institutions for alleged “anti-American” values or antisemitism.
Consumers and Businesses: The expansion of tariffs, particularly on household appliances, is expected to increase consumer costs. Previous tariff increases have already led to higher prices for a range of goods and are projected to cost the average American family thousands annually, with low- and middle-income households feeling the greatest impact. Businesses, especially small and medium-sized manufacturers relying on imported parts, face higher operating costs and reduced export competitiveness due to retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
Economy and Market Stability: The administration’s “chaotic approach to global trade” and frequent policy shifts have generated uncertainty, potentially impacting investment and market sentiment. This instability can lead to concerns about a global recession and has reportedly wiped out significant market value, affecting Americans’ retirement savings.
Healthcare: Rollbacks of key patient protections under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), including the elimination of essential health benefits requirements and defunding of outreach programs, threaten access to care for millions, particularly those with pre-existing conditions.
Education: Actions like the directive to close the U.S. Department of Education, while maintaining some federal functions, could exacerbate educational inequalities and disrupt vital programs.

Implications for US National Security:

International Cooperation: The unilateral and often confrontational approach to trade and alliances can strain relationships with key partners, potentially impacting intelligence sharing and collaborative efforts on security threats. The focus on “America First” could lead to a less unified front against global challenges.
Economic Stability as a Security Factor: Economic instability caused by trade wars could indirectly affect national security by weakening the U.S. economy and its ability to project power or invest in defense.
Soft Power Erosion: Actions seen as undermining democratic institutions or human rights at home could diminish U.S. soft power and influence abroad, making it harder to garner international support for U.S. national security objectives.

Implications for Small, Western Liberal Democratic Allies of the US:

(Ambassador Comment: The “America First” rhetoric and actions that prioritize bilateral deals over multilateral cooperation continue to strain alliances. There’s a strong perception that the U.S. under Trump is “eliminating the ties that bind the US to Europe” and seeking to transform allies into “nationalist vassals.” This could lead to a significant reduction in U.S. forces in Europe and a questioning of the U.S. security guarantee.).

(Economic Minister Comment: Small, Western liberal democracies are highly integrated into the global economy and are vulnerable to U.S. trade policies, including tariffs. The unpredictable nature of U.S. policy can create economic uncertainty and harm their own industries and consumer markets. The “whipsaw policies” around tariffs generate concerns about a global recession that would disproportionately affect smaller economies.)

(Ambassador Comment: Trump’s “contempt for the principles of the rules-based order,” including international law and multilateral institutions, directly threatens the framework that often protects smaller nations. This approach, which suggests “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must,” makes smaller countries more susceptible to coercion from larger powers, including the U.S. itself.)

(Military Attache Comment: Should the U.S. reduce its commitment to alliances like NATO, small Western liberal democracies may face increased pressure to bolster their own defense capabilities and spending, potentially diverting resources from other critical areas.)

(Ambassador Comment: The U.S. administration’s perceived assault on its own democratic model and its support for nationalist voices in Europe could embolden populist and authoritarian movements within these allied nations, potentially leading to internal political instability and a weakening of their liberal democratic institutions. These allies may feel compelled to “diversify away from the US” and reinvent the rules-based order without U.S. leadership.)