Fredonia Project Sitrep 20 Us Domestic

DATE-TIME GROUP: 071800ZDECEMBER25

FROM: EMBASSY OF FREDONIA, WASHINGTON, D.C.

TO: MFA NAGADOCHES

CLASSIFICATION: CONEOFSILENCE // FREDONIAN EYES ONLY

SUBJECT: SITREP 020 “THE FREDONIA PROJECT” – OBSERVATIONAL DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA IN CRISIS 1-07 DECEMBER 2025

SUMMARY:

IN ACCORDANCE WITH MFA DIRECTIVE 1826-APRIL-1, THIS EMBASSY HAS INITIATED A REGULAR SERIES OF ANALYTICAL DISPATCHES REGARDING THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SERIES, DESIGNATED “THE FREDONIA PROJECT,” WILL BE CIRCULATED UNDER STANDARD SITREP PROTOCOL. PRESUMED LEAK. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

Secretary of “War,” Pete Hegseth—and the U.S. Navy and the United States—have had a really, really, really bad week. (Ambassador Comment: Spoiler Alert: It doesn’t look like the forthcoming weeks will be any better. ) Hegseth showed the United States and the world, as complete a picture as possible of who and/or what he is. The reveal continues, and there is no indication that what is to come from him will be anything less than horrifying and appalling. (Ambassador Comment: Never a good look for a Cabinet Secretary, and a really bad look for the guy who runs the world’s largest, most powerful and, for decades, highly respected military. )

Hegsethean Debacle: The Background

Between 1 September and 5 December, 2025, the US Navy blew up 22-23 small speed boats in the Eastern Caribbean and Pacific as part of “Operation Southern Spear,” the official name for Trump’s alleged “war” on alleged “narco terrorists.” These boats allegedly were chock full of fentanyl, and piloted by “narco-terrorists” that are allegedly–wait for it– “targeting the US.” According to public reporting, some 87 people have been killed in these strikes (Note: Transparency on the official numbers of casualties has been limited. )
(Ambassador Comment: Neither the President nor his “War” Secretary has provided any evidence to support these claims; nothing to prove that the boats were filled with fentanyl, nothing to prove that the men piloting these boats are armed combatants, or part of a coherent action of any kind against the United States.)

This week, it came to light that on 2 September 2025, Hegseth, reportedly following Trump’s guidance, presided over the decision to use overwhelming lethal force to blow one of these boats to bits and kill all those aboard. When the smoke (not, as Hegseth has claimed, the “fog of war”) cleared after the first strike, two men were seen clinging to the wreckage. After studying this situation for an hour, it was decided that there was clear proof that two men had survived the bombings, so a second missile was fired at the boat, killing both shipwrecked survivors.

Hegseth has spent this week responding to questions about the specifics of the 2 September killings of two men who had survived this bombing.

As part of his initial comments, Hegseth acknowledged that the two survivors were killed in a second strike, emphasized that the US knew exactly who was on the boat that was blown to bits, what their genders were, where they lived, and on and on, and that the US attacks on the boats were justified. (Ambassador Comment: Unfortunately for Hegseth and the Administration, the Uniformed Code of Military Justice “hors de combat” provision states that it is not legal to continue to attack when a combatant is no longer capable of continuing the fight. Oh, and doing so can be considered a War Crime. It would seem that Hegseth would want to use the detailed intelligence cited earlier about the survivors to justify that they presented a continuing threat to the US Navy, hovering drones, and the United States to support his claims of legality, but to date, silence reigns on the subject. )

As a result of the September 2 revelation, and in what can only be described as a miracle rivaling that of Lazarus rising from the dead, both houses of the U.S. Congress came to life to investigate the “second bombing” this week. In the “no surprise” column, however, Senators came away with conflicting interpretations after watching the classified videos of the event. Most lawmakers, professors, and military personnel appeared to conclude that the second strike was clearly an action prohibited by the Uniform Code of Justice. Senator Tom Cotton from Arkansas, however, said that he thought these two men, whose boat had been blown to bits and who were left clinging to the wreckage, were still a threat to the United States. He asserted that it was clear to him that these two survivors were intent on continuing their mission – gathering up bags of drugs from the burning boat to deliver to the United States. He thus concluded that the second strike was justified; these men had to be killed to neutralize the direct threat they posed.

Now, Senator Cotton is both an attorney (Harvard Law School) and a former military officer, who completed two combat deployments and was awarded a Bronze Star, two Army Commendation Medals, a Combat Infantryman Badge, a Ranger tab, an Afghanistan Campaign Medal, and an Iraq Campaign Medal. It seems reasonable, then, to assume that Senator Cotton is fully cognizant of the “hors de combat” provision in the US Code of Military Justice.

It seems equally reasonable to assume that Senator Tom Cotton, Esq. then had to know that for the second bombing of this “drug” boat by the US to be legal, the survivors of the bombing had to be threatening an attack on the U.S. Navy, or a US place or person.

The most basic question for Senator Cotton that springs to mind is exactly how these shipwrecked and bombed survivors posed a threat to the US, or, in fact, to anyone? Were these two conspiring to row their destroyed boat to the closest US land (which appears likely to be Guantanamo Bay) to distribute drugs to the US Base or launch an attack? Or did they discern that the missiles had come from Trinidad and settle for attacking someone or someplace in Trinidad?

Given what salt water, not to mention explosives, can do to a boat’s motor and a human body, Senator Cotton’s assessment rests on some seriously shaky reasoning: Perhaps Hegseth’s “in depth” intelligence about the pilots included their plan to right the boat, find dry weapons, locate or fabricate oars and a place to sit, triangulate the exact location from which the missiles came, figure out which direction was which, dry off their faces, and row between 65 and 200 miles to find that US target. This seems like a high bar to meet for these two men, who were likely still reeling from the missile explosion and surrounded by what was left of the bodies of their fellow “terrorists.” (Ambassador Comment: Just Sayin’)

To top off his really, really, really bad week, Hegseth’s use of “Signal” to discuss ongoing military actions with, among others, a journalist who was not a US government official, was again on the front page. The Pentagon Inspector General released a report that concluded that Hegseth’s Signal chat on the mission against the Houthis not only violated Pentagon policy, but “could have put that mission, and the personnel involved in it, in danger.” Unsurprisingly, Hegseth quickly trumpeted (pun intended) this as his own exoneration. A former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (Security & Information Operations (someone who actually understands the gravity of security breaches) was quoted as stating that “in our nation’s history, never has a more damning statement been written about the conduct of an American Secretary of Defense (SECDEF).”

(Ambassador Comment: In a Cabinet made up of stunningly unqualified and incompetent individuals, Hegseth really stands out. He has, so far, managed to stay in his job, despite missteps which include: giving his wife a role in Pentagon affairs, firing of senior officials without cause, continuing a social media presence more typical of a junior high school bully than the Secretary of Defense of the United States, and the stunning use of Signal to discuss ongoing military actions with, among others, a journalist who was not a US government official.

It is not at all clear that the history of poor judgment, inaccurate statements, bullying behaviors, or pseudo-military strutting will convince Trump to fire Hegseth. But some teensy fissures are showing up in the Stepford Republican coalition that backs Trump on Capitol Hill and throughout the government. We are hearing that our US partners are feeling some change may be coming, and we would not be surprised if Hegseth is the first domino to fall.)

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 360 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.