Sabotage in the Baltic Sea, Implications for European Security, and Lessons for the Indo-Pacific
The Chairman of the Board of The Steady State, Jim C. O’Brien, testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 30 2026.
His Opening Comments:
“Thank you to the Committee for highlighting the importance of the Baltic Sea and the infrastructure under its surface. The Committee – and my fellow witness, Dr. Schmitt – have laid out the factual context very well. Simply put, the globe’s 500 or so cables carry more than 99% of the world’s digital traffic, and undersea infrastructure will be increasingly important for the transmission of energy and electricity. Over the last decade undersea infrastructure has become a site of considerable investment by America’s largest companies, adding another strong US interest in its protection. There are 100 – 200 outages in a typical a year. Most are accidental, but there is a growing and troubling pattern of disruption by Russian and Chinese ships.
I will focus on some policy implications of this last point. The first lesson is timeless: we can deter now or pay later. Russian and Chinese ships have been involved in multiple attacks in the Baltic over the last several years, and those countries are learning how and whether the US will answer. The Allies affected directly by sabotage in the Baltic — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany through to Belgium, France, and the UK – are NATO’s fighting flank. They are critical to defending the Arctic as well as Russia’s northern sea routes to the globe. If we do not stand with them potential adversaries will believe that we will not stand with anyone.
Also, our current posture poses a risk of escalation. Russia is reported to be placing armed personnel on shadow fleet vessels, raising the cost of stops intended to ensure that the ships do not threaten lives, other ships, and the environment. Ukraine is targeting Russian export infrastructure used in the region, arguably because without further US action in the Baltic it is difficult to stop Russia from earning funds from oil exports. Our NATO Allies may face strong domestic pressure to answer Russian provocations. In short, the conditions are ripe for miscalculation or error to lead to more violence. A stronger US presence can persuade everyone that escalation is in no one’s interest.
Finally, the Baltic Sea presents a test case of an issue that will face US Administrations for decades: how can the US ensure that the basic conditions of prosperity and security — including undersea cables and pipelines, freedom of navigation, and assets in space – are provided and protected?”
Jim O’Brien is a distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. At ECFR, he works on identifying issues that can form the basis of a renewed and sustained transatlantic partnership.
Previously, O’Brien served as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs in the Biden administration, as head of the Office of Sanctions Coordination, and under President Obama as the special envoy for hostage affairs. He was also a career official at the State Department from 1989 to 2001, serving in the Office of the Secretary, Policy Planning, and the Office of the Legal Adviser as well as presidential envoy for the Balkans.
Outside government, O’Brien was a founder and Vice Chair of international advisory firm Albright Stonebridge group (ASG), which has worked in more than 100 countries globally since 2001. He holds a JD from Yale Law School, a MA from the University of Pittsburgh, and a BA from Macalester College.
Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.
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