OIL OVER DEMOCRACY: THE UNITED STATES EMBRACES A NEW AUTHORITARIAN IN VENEZUELA

THE STEADY STATE

FEB 14, 2026

On the same day that Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado addressed the Munich Security Conference to plead for Venezuela’s democratic future, President Trump stood on the White House lawn and called his relationship with Venezuela’s Interim President Delcy Rodríguez “a 10.” Machado warned that Rodríguez remains “closely linked to the criminal environment of the Maduro regime.” Trump said the oil is coming out and a lot of money is being paid. Machado (again) dedicated her Nobel Prize to Trump for removing a dictator. Trump formally recognized the dictator’s deputy as the legitimate government and announced he will visit Caracas.

Here is what the United States is doing in Venezuela and what it means for all of us:

Oil first, democracy when?: In six weeks since the January 3 capture of Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration has built an oil-extraction architecture of stunning speed and ambition. Treasury has issued a cascade of general licenses—GL 46, 47, 48, 30B—opening Venezuela’s upstream and downstream sectors to American companies. Energy Secretary Chris Wright flew to Caracas February 11, toured Orinoco Belt oil fields with Rodríguez, and announced that over a billion dollars in Venezuelan crude has already been sold, with five billion more expected. OFAC issued company-specific licenses to BP, Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Shell, with all royalties flowing to U.S. Treasury-controlled accounts. Chevron aims to double production within 18 months. Elections? Rodríguez committed to “free and fair” elections but offered no timeline. Her brother Jorge, the National Assembly president, said flatly: “There will not be an election in this immediate period.” Wright said elections would come in 18 to 24 months—maybe. The metric that matters to this administration is barrels, not ballots.

Amnesty as theater: More than 600 political prisoners remain behind bars. The amnesty law moving through the National Assembly has been quietly gutted—provisions for returning seized assets, canceling Interpol red notices, and lifting candidacy bans have been stripped from the text. Attorney General Saab insists detainees “committed crimes” and must “submit themselves to justice.” Opposition leader Juan Pablo Guanipa was released on February 8 and re-detained seven hours later—by ten armed men in civilian clothes—for the crime of speaking to reporters. His release document listed two conditions; he violated neither. This is not reconciliation. It is a managed concession designed to generate headlines while preserving the state’s power to re-imprison anyone who steps out of line.

The Venezuelan people are being ignored: The first credible opinion poll since Maduro’s capture found that 91 percent of Venezuelans want elections and want the results respected. In a hypothetical vote, Machado defeats Rodríguez 67 to 25 percent. On February 12, thousands of students marched from the Central University of Venezuela demanding prisoner releases—the largest opposition demonstration since January 3. Families chained themselves to detention centers. Rodríguez—the woman the DEA designated a “priority target” for suspected narcotics trafficking in 2022—told NBC this week that Maduro remains the “legitimate president.” And the President of the United States says the relationship is a 10.

Even the oil math doesn’t work: OPEC data shows Venezuelan production actually fell 87,000 barrels per day in January. TotalEnergies’ CEO publicly ruled out returning—“too expensive and too polluting.” ConocoPhillips refuses to reinvest until compensated for its $12 billion claim. Francisco Monaldi of Rice University’s Baker Institute concluded that Venezuela’s seven decades of oil history show no contract surviving to maturity without deterioration of terms. Without democratic transition and a credible legal framework, only short-term wildcatter investments are viable. The administration is building an energy strategy on the most unreliable foundation in the Western Hemisphere.

Still fighting the wrong drug war: The Caribbean boat strikes continue. On February 14, SOUTHCOM struck another vessel, killing three—the 39th disclosed strike, bringing the total death toll to 133. Legal experts characterize these as extrajudicial killings. We are spending millions per day to destroy disposable fiberglass hulls while the drug networks remain intact and the real threat—fentanyl from Mexico—goes unaddressed. Spain, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Uruguay have jointly condemned the January 3 operation. The UN Security Council, facing a U.S. veto, has gone silent. At Munich, European officials privately expressed discomfort with the sovereignty implications. We are losing allies and burning credibility for barrels of heavy crude.

Other parts of the world hog the headlines, but Americans should pay close attention to what is being done in our name in Venezuela. For over 30 years across my diplomatic career—including three tours in Venezuela, where I served as Deputy Chief of Mission until I was declared persona non grata and expelled—U.S. diplomacy in the hemisphere was founded on respect for democracy and human rights, collaboration to meet mutual threats, and free trade to drive prosperity and security. Those policies were imperfect, but they produced qualitatively better outcomes from the Arctic north to the tip of Tierra del Fuego. Today, the administration that captured a dictator is building a partnership with his authoritarian protegé, extracting oil, and telling 30 million Venezuelans that their aspirations for democracy can wait. We will live to regret what is being done to our own hemisphere—and to the values that once defined America’s role in it.

Brian Naranjo is a Senior Foreign Service Officer with over thirty years of experience serving primarily in the Western Hemisphere. His service included three Venezuela tours (including Deputy Chief of Mission until he was declared persona non grata and expelled), and tours as the senior political officer and chief of staff in Panama, Canada, Mexico, and Panama. At State, Brian directed the Political and Policy Coordination Office for the Western Hemisphere and the UN Political Affairs Office. He is a member of The Steady State.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 390 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.