PDF COPY HERE 1. Key Judgments We assess that the deterioration of US democratic governance has accelerated since our last assessment in June. The defining change of the summer is one of kind, not degree: the administration has moved from retribution against individuals and institutions to intervention in the machinery of the November 3 midterm […]
Executive Summary We assess with high confidence that accelerating authoritarian dynamics in the United States are already generating direct and growing risks to American businesses, both abroad and at home. This risk environment is defined less by episodic shocks than by a structural shift away from rules-based governance toward personalized, discretionary power, in w […]
PDF We assess that President Trump’s chronic need to reward loyalists and appease dictators is a primary driver of America’s path toward authoritarianism. Trump’s creation of a $1.776 billion slush fund to reward anyone claiming they were “persecuted” by the Biden Administration suggests he may see a need to remind people who have proven willing […]
PDF VERSION AVAILABLE HERE We assess that Donald Trump’s second presidential term exhibits increasingly personalized, dominance-oriented leadership, shaped by strong partisan control, expanded executive authority, and a staff culture emphasizing loyalty over moderation. His governing style prioritizes image, legacy, and symbolic strength over institutional process, contributing to policy volatility and making long-term forecasting difficult, even […]
PDF VERSION AVAILABLE HERE We assess that the main driver of increasing authoritarianism in America remains executive overreach, compounded by a renewed presidential focus on securing a legacy through any means, but especially through President Trump’s pursuit of vanity projects—including not only his war in Iran but various events linked to America’s 250th birthday. Trump […]
PDF AVAILABLE HERE We assess with high confidence that the cumulative effect of the Trump Administration’s ongoing actions indicates that democratic backsliding continues. While some institutional resistance exists and may be growing, the trajectory poses both immediate and long-term risks to constitutional order and national security. The period from October 1, 2025—January 18, 2026 saw […]
View the most recent update here. PDF VERSION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This assessment, Accelerating Authoritarian Dynamics: Assessment of Democratic Decline, authored by members of The Steady State, all of whom are former U.S. Intelligence Community officers with analytic responsibilities,[1] applies the analytic tradecraft of the U.S. Intelligence Community to conditions inside the United States. It concludes—with […]