The Weakest Link: Why Exquisite Weapons Won’t Save the U.S. from China

In the latest episode of the Steady State Sentinel, Phillips O’Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews and one of the sharpest contemporary writers on war and strategy joins host John Sipher to argue the Iran War revealed two devastating truths:

1. The U.S. government is strategically incoherent — it went to war without clear goals or an exit plan.

2. The U.S. military is showing signs of degradation, with weaker officers promoted and critical thinking suppressed.

He dissects the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, calling it a capitulation: “Trump got nothing. Iran is in better shape at the end than it was before the bombing started.” He warns that the U.S. is now deemed utterly untrustworthy by allies, in Europe and throughout Asia, and that China is now positioned to win a war with the U.S. due to America’s military degradation and collapsed industrial base.

He critiques the Biden administration’s “Goldilocks strategy” in Ukraine — which, concerned about global stability, sought to ensure that Ukraine could survive, but didn’t want Russia to lose. This was followed by Trump, who abandoned Ukraine completely.

O’Brien frames the 2026 midterms as the most consequential election since 1862 on which hinged the results of the Civil War. The results of the 2026 midterms will determine whether the massive corruption within this administration becomes fully entrenched throughout the government: once these systems go corrupt, it becomes entrenched.

O’Brien closes with an explanation of why the Administration’s MAGA movement has resulted in the deliberate destruction of the U.S. Alliance system that has kept America strong and prosperous for the last 80 years. If it continues unchecked, the stability we enjoyed will be impossible to rebuild.

View the Episode Transcript and Watch the episode here:

Guest info: Phillips O’Brien is Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews and one of the sharpest contemporary writers on war, strategy, and political power. He is the author of several major books, including How the War Was Won, The Strategists, The Second Most Powerful Man in the World, and most recently War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why. He writes regularly for The Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, and his own Substack, Phillips’s Newsletter.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.