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When intelligence stops informing power and starts deferring to it, it ceases to be intelligence at all—and becomes a liability that risks strategic blindness, policy failure, and war.

In a functioning democracy, intelligence exists to illuminate reality, not to mirror power. That principle is not aspirational; it is structural. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) was created to ensure that objective, apolitical analysis reaches policymakers with clarity, independence, and integrity. When that function falters, the consequences are not theoretical; they are operational, tactical, and strategic—often immediate, and sometimes tragic.

Recent testimony by Tulsi Gabbard raises a fundamental concern: whether the DNI is fulfilling that mission at all. By declining to assess whether Iran poses an “imminent threat” and asserting that only Donald Trump can make that determination, the DNI did more than sidestep a question—she relinquished the core analytic responsibility of her office. This is not how the system is designed to work.

The DNI is not an extension of presidential judgment. The role exists precisely to inform that judgment—grounding it in evidence, context, and independent analysis. “Imminence” is not a political label. It is an analytic conclusion derived from intelligence collection, pattern recognition, and expert assessment. When that responsibility is deferred upward, intelligence ceases to function as a check on power and becomes an instrument of it. That shift is especially dangerous given the complexity of today’s global threat environment.

Professor Jiang Xueqin, a Chinese-Canadian educator, and others have noted that the strategic alignment among Iran, China, and Russia is not incidental—it is structural. Eurasian integration, energy control, and geographic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz form the backbone of a long-term competition that cannot be understood through isolated or reactive analysis. Iran is not just a regional actor; it is a connective node in a broader geopolitical architecture that links energy flows, financial systems, and military positioning.

We have already seen Iranian forces bolstered by Russian and Chinese technology.

Professor Xueqin posited that the war with Iran is also impacted by economic flow that comes from UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. If the supply chain from this Middle East sector is impacted, then the American economy is impacted. Understanding those inter-connecting systems requires exactly what the DNI appears to be abandoning: deep, integrative analysis.

The Steady State former intelligence professionals have raised alarms about the recent Annual Threat Assessment—pointing to its reliance on commercially available information, its lack of analytic depth, and its omission of critical threat domains ranging from domestic extremism to climate instability and global migration. These are not minor gaps. They are indicators of a diminished analytic enterprise.

The Steady State has gone further, warning that the document reads less like an intelligence product and more like a political one—shaped as much by omission as by inclusion. When key threats are excluded, and convenient narratives are emphasized, the result is not just incomplete, it is misleading.

This erosion of analytic rigor is compounded by a broader cultural shift. Discussions in recent forums by some of our retired members of the National Security Community have highlighted the growing influence of ideological framing. When strategic analysis is replaced by worldview-driven narratives, the risk is not just bias; it is blindness.

Blindness, in intelligence, is how wars begin. History offers a clear warning. From Vietnam to Iraq to Afghanistan, the United States has repeatedly entered conflicts where initial assumptions hardened into political commitments—commitments that then demanded validation, escalation, and, ultimately, prolonged entanglement.

In such an environment, the role of intelligence is not to justify decisions; it is to challenge them. That requires independence. It requires the willingness to assess threats, even when those assessments complicate political narratives. It requires the ability to connect disparate signals into a coherent picture of long-term risk. And above all, it requires leadership capable of exercising that responsibility.

Right now, that capability is in question.

When the DNI defers analytic judgment to the President, relies on shallow or incomplete data, and presides over a threat assessment that omits critical realities, the issue is not just performance—it is qualification. The position demands more than alignment with executive authority. It demands expertise, rigor, and the courage to speak with analytic clarity.

The stakes could not be higher. The partnership among Iran, China, and Russia, the fragility of global energy systems, the persistence of domestic and transnational threats are not problems that yield to simplified narratives or politically convenient omissions. They require a fully functioning Intelligence Community led by someone prepared to do the job as it was intended.

Intelligence must inform power—not defer to it. If that principle is lost, so too is one of the most critical safeguards of American national security.

Martha Duncan is a retired U.S. Department of Defense senior executive with 37 years of service, including 23 years as an officer in the U.S. Army Reserves, where she also served as Reserve Attache. She had three operational deployments to Panama, Bosnia, and Afghanistan. At DIA, she worked as a Latin American analyst for 11 years. A specialist in human intelligence (HUMINT), she is recognized for her leadership in intelligence operations, coalition-building, and enterprise-level policy development across the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the U.S. Army, and the broader Intelligence Community. She grew up in Panama during the rise of Manuel Noriega and was instrumental in his capture.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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ICYMI: The United States is walking away from the alliance‑based, globally‑engaged foreign policy that defined the post‑WWII era. Ambassador Tom Shannon calls it a “counterrevolution” and it’s not an accident.

In the latest episode of The Steady State Sentinel, Lauren Anderson sits down with Ambassador Tom Shannon, one of the most senior diplomats of his generation, for a far‑reaching conversation about how U.S. foreign policy is being fundamentally rewritten, and what that might mean for our security, our values, and the next generation.

Shannon served as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, led the State Department during the Obama‑Trump transition, and spent 35 years as a Foreign Service Officer. He is now teaching at Princeton, where he watches Gen Z wrestle with the same questions that keep national security professionals up at night.

What follows is not a partisan take but a sober, inside account of a deliberate shift away from global engagement, and a warning about what gets left behind.

The Counterrevolution Is Real, and It’s Been Building for Decades

Shannon argues that the “revolution” in U.S. foreign policy happened after World War II, when America chose alliances, global governance, and engagement over isolation. That system lasted for nearly 70 years.

But Iraq, Afghanistan, the 2008 financial crisis, and COVID eroded public faith in foreign policy elites. What we are seeing now, from trade wars to ambassadorial vacancies to the gutting of USAID – is a counterrevolution: a return to the pre‑WWII model of “America first, America alone.”

“President Trump has been one of the most effective articulators of this kind of foreign policy,” Shannon says. “But the task before the American people today is to determine whether or not this is a correct path.”

Burning the Ships On Purpose

Shannon offers a great analogy: Hernán Cortés, upon landing in Mexico, burned his ships so his men could not turn back.

He believes the current administration is doing the same thing, systematically dismantling the structures and personnel that allowed the U.S. to be a global power, so that no future administration can easily reverse course.

“It’s not happenstance. It’s purposeful…they are determined that we’re going to burn our ships, that we are going to end the structures and the personnel who filled those structures that have allowed us to be global over time.”

Empty ambassadorships, defunded exchange programs, and the departure of regional experts are not bugs but features.

Power Without Purpose Is an Empty Vessel

Shannon is no pacifist. He understands the necessity of hard power. But he warns that lethality without values is a trap.

The magic of the United States, he says, has never been just its military. It has been its soft power: the Peace Corps, the International Visitor Leadership Program, scientific exchanges, and the quiet work of showing up in other people’s communities.

“Power without purpose, power without values or principle is an empty vessel… like quicksand once you step into it, it’s very hard to get out of.”

When the U.S. pulls back from that work, it convinces other nations that we are not reliable partners, only transactional actors.

What Gen Z Understands (That Elites Don’t)

Shannon has been teaching at Princeton for seven years. His students were all born after 9/11. They do not remember the attacks. They grew up watching Iraq, Afghanistan, the financial crisis, and COVID.

When they hear establishment figures talk about American purpose, Shannon says, it sounds like the adults in a Charlie Brown cartoon: wah, wah, wah, wah.

But here is what gives him hope: they are not fearful. They want a peaceful, connected world because they know conflict will find them anyway. And they understand they will inherit the world left to them.

“This rising generation is going to play a role in shaping the world they live in…it’s going to be a world of their making. That was not true for us.”

Expertise Cannot Be Backfilled Overnight

Anderson and Shannon both warn that stripping the State Department, FBI, and intelligence community of language and regional expertise leaves the United States dangerously vulnerable.

Shannon points to the empty ambassadorial posts in the Middle East, during an active war, as “pitiful.” Anderson notes that the FBI removed its Iranian expertise squad just before the U.S. struck Iran with Israel.

Shannon states: rebuilding what has been lost will take a half‑generation, if it is possible at all.

What Can Be Done and Why You Should Be Excited

Shannon ends on a surprising note of optimism.

He tells his students that there is no place to hide in this world. You can live in a cave with a goat, and the world will still find you. So you might as well understand it and help shape it.

He urges the next generation and anyone listening to be excited, not afraid. The current debate about America’s role in the world is not settled. And that means there is room to act.

“What a wonderful opportunity. What an incredible challenge. Knowing that what you do is going to have an influence that carries through the rest of this century.”

Listen and watch the full conversation below:

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There is good reason to think that, before the Iran war, Russia was close to the breaking point. Sanctions and low global oil prices were squeezing Russian revenues. Russian forces were making at best incremental gains on the Ukraine battlefield, at tremendous cost: well over 1000 casualties a day in 2025, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The loss of Russian access to Starlink in February helped shift the initiative to Ukraine, which began to recapture territory.

According to Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar, Putin was planning a shake-up inside the Kremlin, to include dismissing his chief Ukraine negotiator. A new team would be needed if Putin wanted to change course on Ukraine.

But the Iran war has handed Putin a lifeline. Oil prices are way up, with oil routinely selling at over $100/barrel. To keep prices down the US has waived sanctions on Russian exports. Air defense missiles that could have gone to Ukraine are being used up to defend against Iranian attacks. The cost of the war—the Pentagon has reportedly proposed a defense supplemental of $200 billion—will make the US even more reluctant to support NATO.

Relations between the US and its allies, already strained, have been shredded by a war undertaken with no American consultation with key partners in Europe and Asia. These regions are being badly hurt by oil and gas shortages. These same allies are being publicly attacked by President Trump for refusing to help; Trump and Secretary of State Rubio are now openly talking about leaving NATO altogether.

Russia is ecstatic at seeing the US once again drawn into a Middle East adventure that squanders American resources and distracts it from countering Russia. America’s lengthy wars in Iraq and Afghanistan helped Putin immensely as he consolidated power and re-built Russia’s repressive systems in the first decades of the 21st century.

Putin’s long-game strategy in Ukraine has always been to count on the West’s internal divisions. He has calculated that the US and NATO will struggle to sustain a common front, and that the US will be paralyzed by disagreements between America-firsters and those wanting to counter Russia. Russia has done all it could to widen these fissures, from massive social media campaigns to hosting Tucker Carlson in Moscow. It has manipulated Victor Orban’s Hungary into being a constant obstacle to European support for Ukraine; Hungary is now blocking a $100 million loan to Ukraine on the pretext that Ukraine is not allowing Russian oil to flow through the Druzhba pipeline. Russia is reportedly providing Iran with targeting information to use against the US.

Curious things are happening inside Russia. Major cities, including Moscow and Petersburg, have recently been experiencing prolonged interruptions in basic internet services as the state tries to force users onto MAX, a single centralized service. Russia’s complacent middle class, which up to now has been carefully insulated from the impact of the war in Ukraine, is now feeling some discomfort. Muscovites are complaining they can’t get Uber rides or order take-out. Putin seems to judge that now is a critical moment to tighten his control and further restrict access to outside information.

Is this, as Zygar suggests, in preparation for changing course and abandoning Russia’s maximalist demands? In this case Putin may fear a backlash from the militant nationalists he has whipped into a frenzy over the past four years. Recently one of his fervent supporters, Ilya Remeslo, issued a public attack on Putin that went out to his 90,000 Telegram followers, one of the services now being disrupted: “Vladimir Putin is not a legitimate president. Vladimir Putin must resign and be ​brought to trial as a war criminal and a thief!” Two days later Remeslo found himself in Petersburg’s Psychiatric Hospital #3.

Or, could Putin, seeing NATO divided and distracted, instead be preparing for escalation? This would require a level of mobilization that Putin has so far tried to avoid: higher taxes, rationing, conscription—sacrifices that would not spare the urban middle class. Russia and the US have been negotiating fruitlessly about Ukraine for months. Russian commentators are now warning that negotiating with America is a dangerous waste of time, pointing to how the US used its negotiations with Iran to disguise its attack.

Putin has been preparing Russia for something like this. The movie “Mr. Nobody Against Putin,” which recently won an Oscar for best documentary, shows how since the beginning of the ‘special military operation’ in 2022, Russian school-children have been bombarded with ultra-nationalist propaganda. Mandatory programs teach Russians to fear the West and hate Ukrainians. They incessantly put before young people the example of World War II, the Great Patriotic War, a time of sacrifice to the Motherland. They prepare them for military service with practice marching, weapons training, and exposure to Ukraine veterans.

Putin is consumed by visions of his historical importance that depend on winning the Ukraine war and permanently returning Ukraine to its ‘rightful place’ in the Russian empire. Thanks to Donald Trump he may now see this as within reach.

Trump and his close supporters, who have long despised Ukraine and looked up to Putin, may not be unhappy with this turn of events. Military adventurism, propaganda in schools, clamping down on dissent, and intimidating online critics are all in the Trump playbook. Putin is intent on controlling the outcome of parliamentary elections this fall, just as Trump is hoping to shape the midterms. The meeting of minds between two old enemies may not be as jarring as the infamous Hitler-Stalin rapprochement in 1939 that led to the Second World War. But it is equally shortsighted and morally bankrupt.

Adam Wasserman is a retired CIA analyst with experience on failing democracies in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. He served on the State Department Policy Planning Staff, the CIA Red Cell, and the National Security Council staff. He is a member of The Steady State.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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Washington, D.C. — The Steady State today filed a formal public comment strongly opposing the U.S. Department of Justice’s proposed rule, “Review of State Bar Complaints and Allegations Against Department of Justice Attorneys,” warning that the rule would undermine the rule of law, violate federal statute, and erode a core system of independent oversight. The filing can be found here.

The proposed rule would permit the Attorney General or his/her designee to intervene in, delay, and potentially override state bar disciplinary proceedings involving Department of Justice attorneys. In its filing, The Steady State concludes that the rule is contrary to longstanding federal law, exceeds the Department’s authority, and raises serious constitutional and federalism concerns.

“The integrity of our legal system depends on the principle that no one is above the law, including government attorneys,” said Steven Cash, Executive Director of The Steady State, and an attorney. “This proposed rule would create a mechanism for shielding Department of Justice attorneys from independent professional accountability. It is inconsistent with federal statute, and it is inconsistent with the basic expectations of a constitutional democracy.”

The Steady State’s comment emphasizes that Congress has already resolved this issue through 28 U.S.C. § 530B, which requires federal attorneys to comply with the same ethical rules and to be subject to the same disciplinary processes as all other attorneys. The proposed rule would depart from that requirement by allowing the Department to delay or interfere with state bar investigations, effectively creating a special regime for federal lawyers unavailable to any other member of the profession.

The filing further warns that the rule would intrude upon the authority of state courts, which have long held primary responsibility for regulating the legal profession. By seeking to influence or suspend state disciplinary proceedings, the Department risks disrupting a system that is both judicial in nature and essential to maintaining public trust in the administration of justice.

“Independent bar discipline is one of the last remaining safeguards ensuring that government lawyers adhere to their ethical obligations,” added Mary Kate Whalen, a Steady State member and former Transportation Security Agency (TSA) Senior Attorney. “Weakening that safeguard is not an administrative adjustment. It is a structural change that would diminish accountability at precisely the moment it is most needed.”

The Steady State also notes that the proposed rule comes amid broader efforts to weaken both internal and external oversight mechanisms within the Department of Justice. The filing cautions that, taken together, these developments risk creating an environment in which attorneys are discouraged from upholding their professional obligations or raising concerns about unlawful or unconstitutional conduct.

The Steady State urges the Department of Justice to withdraw the proposed rule in its entirety.

The Steady State is an organization of more than 400 former senior national security, intelligence, military, diplomatic, and law enforcement professionals committed to defending the Constitution, the rule of law, and democratic institutions.

Media Contact: [email protected]

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In this edition of the Sentinel podcast, host Lauren Anderson, former senior FBI executive, sits down with Ambassador Tom Shannon, one of the most experienced diplomats of his generation. They discuss what Shannon describes as a “counterrevolution” in U.S. foreign policy – a shift away from the post-WWII alliance-based system toward a more unilateral “America First” approach. Shannon warns that the erosion of institutional expertise at agencies like the State Department and FBI, and across the national security enterprise, will have long-term consequences for U.S. effectiveness abroad. He also emphasizes the enduring importance of soft power, including programs like the International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP), in shaping global relations. The conversation closes with a look at how Gen Z students, including those Shannon teaches at Princeton, view America’s role in a chaotic world.

Thomas A Shannon Jr. is one of the United States’ most experienced career diplomats, with more than 35 years in the Foreign Service. He served as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, the State Department’s top career diplomat, and held senior roles across multiple administrations, including as U.S. Ambassador to Brazil and Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs. He also led the department through the transition between the Obama and Trump administrations. Now teaching at Princeton University, Shannon brings deep expertise in diplomacy, U.S. foreign policy, and America’s role in a rapidly changing world.

View the episode transcript here and watch for the full write-up on Thursday.

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Applying the “broken windows theory” to international relations seems appropriate in this moment of riotous disorder – at least to explain why the weakening of the legal and customary architecture of the system in the hands of autocrats has so profoundly impacted individuals caught up in violence that they never wanted .

The broken windows theory states that visible signs of disorder and misbehavior in an environment encourage further disorder and misbehavior, leading to serious crimes. The principle was developed to explain the decay of neighborhoods, but it is often applied to work and educational environments.

When I tell my students that the international order is anarchic, with no supreme entity that has enforcement capability, they are skeptical of the utility of treaties, norms, and other kinds of moral codes. When those tools are withdrawn, however, we see that they have more psychological power than we had imagined. That is why they are under attack by autocrats around the world.

A high point of post-World War II international cooperation and rules-based order might be marked by the “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P) doctrine, enshrined in the 2005 UN World Summit agreement. The nightmares of the 1990s – Rwanda and the Balkans – had given birth to the idea that an international obligation existed that was even more compelling than the absolute sovereignty of nation states to do whatever they wanted. R2P exhorts national leaders to never carry out atrocities against their own population; to protect parts of their population from other parts seeking to harm them; and if national governments fail then other governments should help populations in grave risk.

Within a decade, as the Syrian war metastasized and Russia regretted supporting international intervention in Libya, the R2P doctrine took a knee and has not recovered. Now, two decades later, aggressive war and attendant harm to civilian populations is happening in Ukraine, Gaza, Iran, Sudan, Lebanon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. Patients dying in hospitals; homes reduced to rubble.

In this moment of extremis, governments in the United States, Russia, Israel and Pakistan, to name only a few, are not only ignoring the “R2P” doctrine, but going even further and degrading longer-established international humanitarian law. International humanitarian law exhortations to belligerent nations convey what they should not do: targeting medical and other civilian facilities, cutting off clean water and energy to entire populations, and harming prisoners of war. Now, all are now looking like checklists.

The Geneva Convention and Protocols date to 1949. While there has never been an enforcement mechanism, they were observed more carefully in the past. What has changed is the concept of obedience to norms which grew out of the horror of World Wars I and II. Those in power in the U.S. are joining what we used to call pariah states in arguing that these rules are against the national interest, in the process affording the citizens of other nations as much attention as players give to tiny plastic pieces in the game of “Risk.”

Maybe it’s my years of living overseas as a diplomat, in war zones and countries emerging from conflict, but I am aghast every single day that a war of choice is waged in my name. Unanswerable autocrats consistently make poor choices with which the rest of us must live. War impoverishes this and future generations worldwide. It is not an effective counter-terrorism tool, but instead generates new adherents for extremist indoctrination. It degrades the environment and kills those most vulnerable to ruptures of electricity, food supplies, and clean water.

The broken windows theory posits that when someone is seen breaking the rules, the rules suffer and more destruction follows. Indeed, the people living amongst shattered glass also suffer, beyond the capacity of many of us to understand. Beset by negative reports, we are supposed to lose focus and care less. Those of us living in peace need to push back against the normalization of unchecked and illegal aggression by autocrats, and argue for the rules. Incredibly, those treaties, norms, and codes had the power to keep people alive.

Annie Pforzheimer is a retired senior Foreign Service Officer who served in the State Department for thirty years, including in Afghanistan, Colombia, South Africa, and El Salvador. She is an adjunct professor of international relations at the City University of New York and a member of The Steady State.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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Since the Trump administration launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, the public has been subjected to a torrent of misinformation, disinformation, and conflicting accounts regarding everything about the action, from its motives to who is responsible for what. A good term for the way information has been managed in Epic Fury is “gaslighting.”

Gaslighting, a form of psychological manipulation where the perpetrator attempts to make the victim doubt their memory, perception, or sanity, has emerged as a significant term in contemporary discourse and seems to be a tool of choice in Trump’s authoritarian playbook as he increasingly employs the technique to sway public opinion, manipulate narratives, and consolidate power. The term comes from the 1938 play ‘Gas Light,” and its film adaptations, in which a husband manipulates a wife into believing that she is losing her mind by subtly altering elements of their environment and then denying the changes when confronted. In politics, gaslighting involves deliberately distorting facts, denying reality, and creating false narratives to disorient the public. In both of his terms, we’ve seen Trump use these tactics to create confusion and manipulate reality. Gaslighting has been in full-speed-ahead mode since the US launched in Epic Fury.

During Trump’s first term in office, he frequently teased pulling out of NATO, and since his second inauguration, relations with our European allies have been strained by his erratic tariff policies and his threat to ‘take’ Greenland from Denmark. Then, there was his failure to notify NATO allies in advance of the launch of Epic Fury. The attack came as no surprise, given the buildup of US naval forces in the Gulf prior to the attack, but there was no official notice of the start of hostilities to enable our allies to protect their installations and embassies.

Once the fighting started, and the Iranians closed the Strait of Hormuz, Trump then demanded the allies come to our support, and expressed anger when, one by one, they rebuffed him. Ignored during his outburst of anger, which included a threat to pull the US out of NATO, was were his remarks in January, dismissing the sacrifices of NATO and other allies in their support of the US in Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan, which began on October 7, 2001, and lasted for two decades. In public remarks about NATO in January of this year, Trump said that the US had never needed its NATO allies and that allied troops had stayed “a little off the front lines” in Afghanistan. Statistics available from official US sources on OEF show the remarks to be misinformation at best, and outright lies at worst.

According to a White House web page dated October 7, 2002, one year after the start of OEF, 27 coalition countries had forces in Afghanistan, totaling 5,000. The US had 9,000 troops on the ground. During that first year, coalition nations deployed more than 14,000 troops in support of OEF, and while no numbers were given, it was reported that coalition forces also suffered deaths and injuries in support of OEF. Coalition partners provided a wide range of combat, logistics, and training support to OEF, including special operations force deployments.

NATO allies participated in combat operations from the start of OEF and also provided logistical and intelligence support.

The illustration below shows the organization of coalition forces during OEF.

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Organization of OEF Forces (Courtesy of CENTCOM)

The following chart presents coalition military fatalities in the Afghanistan War (Operation Enduring Freedom/ISAF) relative to each contributing nation’s population. Values include total Killed in Action, national population (in millions), deaths per million population, and the equivalent percentage of national population. Nations with smaller populations and substantial combat deployments—such as Georgia, Denmark, Estonia, the United States, and the United Kingdom—show the highest per-capita fatality rates. Countries with limited combat roles or larger populations show correspondingly lower per-capita rates.

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What these charts show is the gaslighting tactic of outright denial of verifiable facts, creating an environment where truth becomes subjective, and we are left questioning the validity of established information. The deliberate distortion of facts and denial of reality threatens the very concept of objective truth. When political leaders manipulate information to suit their agenda, the line between truth and lies blurs, undermining our ability to make informed decisions. It also weakens the foundations of democratic governance.

That this situation has security implications for all of us is undeniable. One has but to look at the current cost of a gallon of regular gasoline. Gaslighting is not the only fault to be found with the way the administration has handled Epic Fury, but as the refusal of our NATO allies to be pulled into the quagmire illustrates, it certainly imposes its own costs.

Much of the damage done will be hard to undo. Some of it is permanent. Our relationship with our NATO allies, for example, which has endured for over 75 years, will probably never be the same again, as they form new partnerships to compensate for America’s vacillating resolve from election to election. The question, though, is how will we survive? Or will we, like the boy who cried ‘wolf’ too many times, be eaten by that wolf?

Charles A. Ray served 20 years in the U.S. Army, including two tours in Vietnam. He retired as a senior US diplomat, serving 30 years in the U.S. Foreign Service, with assignments as ambassador to the Kingdom of Cambodia and the Republic of Zimbabwe, and was the first American consul general in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. He also served in senior positions with the Department of Defense and is a member of The Steady State.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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Welcome to The Steady State’s Weekly Digest, a compilation of the week’s Steady State publications. Catch up on what you missed or dive deeper into the issues shaping our moment.

Threatening War Crimes: Has Trump Finally Crossed the Line? by| Charles A. Ray

Donald Trump’s threats to “destroy” Iran’s energy structure, if carried out, is a potential war crime, implicating not only the president but all who carry out his mission.

Reckless Power: Steering America Toward a Deeper Middle East Quagmire by Bill Piekney

“Ours are the unequalled machines of war, a military superiority that in the hands of an unbalanced president and a hormonal defense secretary are just begging to be used.”

The Ice Gulag-Power, Surveillance, and Fear Undermine Our Democracy: Push Back by James Petrila

“Because the structure of the “Ice Gulag” is currently supported by all three branches of the Government, opposition must target all three aspects: apprehension, detention, and removal.”

From Caracas to Tehran: The Same Failed Playbook by Brian R. Naranjo

Autocrats start wars for no better reason than consolidating their power at home, making follow-up incoherent. Donald Trump is no exception.

Robert Mueller: A Hero Remembered, A Presidency Revealed by Mike Mozur

These many strands, taken together, leave numerous unanswered questions that linger from the facts uncovered by Mueller’s team’s investigation and 2019 report. As for obstruction of justice, Trump 47 offers new examples with each passing week, even today.

DHS- ICE: The Making of a Paramilitary Force Plain Sight by Ken Syring

If you wanted to design a hiring and training system that would produce the most psychologically volatile, constitutionally illiterate federal law enforcement officers possible, it would look almost exactly like what the Department of Homeland Security is building today.

Rule of Law vs. Rule of One by Martha Duncan

This was a moment in recent American life that should give us pause, not only because it was crass personal and political rhetoric, but because it revealed a collision between two fundamentally different visions of power.

Why a Superpower Finds Itself Alone by Amb. (ret.) Bonnie D. Jenkin

If we fail to rebuild international respect, credibility, and partnership, we will be treated as a rogue national and inconstant ally, which will only benefit America’s adversaries.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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Our allies refusal to join us in Iran is a warning. If America does not rebuild respect, credibility, and partnership, isolation will be the new normal.

Our allies refusal to join the United States in its war in Iran is framed by the current Administration as a failure of allied courage or commitment. It is neither. Instead, it is a damning judgment on the actions of this Administration toward America’s partners and allies, international law and multilateralism, democratic principles, and human rights. This judgment is a significant shift that, if unaddressed, will undermine U.S. international relations for years to come.

I cannot recall another moment in my 36-year diplomatic career when none of our traditional partners and allies chose to stand with the United States. Contrast this with NATO’s response after the 9/11 attacks. Our NATO allies honored America’s invocation of Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which states that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all, and commits members to assist the attacked party. NATO provided troops and military support. This was the first time Article 5 was instituted, and our allies proudly stood with us.

Not today. The U.S. has been rebuffed by nations that have unhesitatingly stood with us.

Now we are isolated, and we did this to ourselves. This isolation is the predictable outcome of a new domestic and foreign-relations pattern of making unreasonable demands, lacking a consistent strategy, being unpredictable and, most of all, treating partners and allies as tools rather than sovereign equals.

For decades, U.S. diplomacy operated on a simple principle: before taking major international action, consult with partners and allies. In 2018, when the U.S. bombed Syria in response to Syria using chemical weapons, we engaged with France and the United Kingdom. Ultimately, we announced that the United States, France, and the United Kingdom launched combined “precision strikes” against Syrian targets.

During my long diplomatic career, we consulted regularly with other countries. Our outreach was based on the premise that good relationships and trust build legitimacy. Successful diplomacy is about engaging countries on a regular basis, even our adversaries. It is how a responsible state in the international system behaves, especially a powerful nation.

Responsible consultation also demonstrates humility. A concept the current Administration does not seem to understand. Being powerful does not require threats or shows of military strength to achieve goals.

The basic principle of engaging partners and allies was absent in our war with Iran. Allies were not properly informed before the strikes. Countries with citizens in Iran were not adequately warned that their people, their infrastructure, or their companies could be at risk. There was little visible attempt to engage the United Nations or to seek earnest multilateral backing. Regular engagements with allies and others were replaced by something different: act first, then complain later if no one follows.

This unilateral instinct is reflected by the way we have treated some of our closest partners. Take South Korea, for example. The United States may soon withdraw key air defense assets, including the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), from South Korea to deploy them to the Middle East. There is little South Korea can do to stop the U.S. from doing so. However, since the end of the Korean War we have assured South Korea that we have their backs, and that they will benefit from our extended deterrence. In fact, we have convinced them not to develop a nuclear weapon because of that extended deterrence. Simply withdrawing these systems is short-sighted, as are American tariffs on South Korea affecting Korean industries and workers, and the recent detention and deportation of over 300 South Korean workers from a Hyundai-LG Energy Solution battery plant construction site in Georgia that was to provide jobs for Americans. These actions tell South Korea that the United States treats security and economic ties as bargaining chips rather than the foundation of a shared strategy.

Our approach to NATO, and Europe more broadly, also sends a destructive message. Questioning NATO’s value, criticizing and mocking European nations and leaders, and floating ideas like buying Greenland – the territory of a NATO ally – sends an unmistakable message: Washington knows best, and allies are expected to fall in line.

The moral and legal dimensions of recent U.S. behavior increase our isolation.

America’s allies have witnessed this Administration’s questionable uses of force, such as sinking boats in the Caribbean on the claim that the boats carried drug traffickers. Claims that lack transparent evidence to justify that that action, which include killing the crews of those vessels once the vessels have been immobilized. To date, U.S. Southern Command reports that U.S. military strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific have killed over 150 people. Similarly, the United States has invaded Venezuela and taken President Maduro prisoner. These actions have been labeled by some lawyers as violations of international law. President Trump, however, made it clear in early 2026 that his actions and use of American power are constrained only by his “own morality” and his “own mind,” not by international law. Relying on his own morality and own mind, President Trump pardoned the former President of Honduras, who had been convicted of Narco-Trafficking, as well as individuals who committed other criminal acts, including the January 6th rioters.

The international community has also witnessed American mistreatment of migrants and asylum seekers through family separations, an abandonment of due process, harsh detention conditions, and violently aggressive immigration raids. They have witnessed the detention and killing of American citizens. They’ve seen people, including children, dying in U.S. detention centers. The United States projects the image of a country that is disturbingly comfortable with the suffering of vulnerable populations.

This moral indifference is not limited to our borders or even just our hemisphere. The dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has worsened starvation. In 2025, for example, the U.S. incinerated nearly 500 metric tons (about 1 million pounds) of taxpayer-funded emergency food aid stored in Dubai after delays caused by USAID staffing cuts. The food was to be sent to hungry children in crises. We then followed this up by withdrawing from over 66 international organizations, some of which address issues affecting women, children, and the effects of climate change.

These acts erode any perception that the United States is a defender of human rights. We are now on “that side” of the list of countries with little to no moral authority or a guardian of a rules-based order.

Yet there is more.

Countries around the world watch this Administration, and this President, make extreme and racist statements, and use racist images. There are no filters to mask their racism, nor does the Administration and its supporters seem to care how these statements resonate domestically and abroad. The President and many of his friends are connected to Jeffrey Epstein and are alleged to have engaged in sexual crimes. Foreign governments have acted against leaders implicated in the Epstein scandal. Yet this Administration hides the facts and blames political opponents. Leadership matters, as do the personal entanglements of leaders.

For democratic governments that must answer to voters and taxpayers, joining a controversial U.S. war is not just a security decision—it is a reputational gamble. Foreign publics see the pattern of scandals, alleged abuse, and an apparent lack of full or even partial legal accountability. Few responsible leaders want to explain to their citizens why they aligned their country with a government perceived as indifferent to basic human rights and the crime of sexual abuse. The Trump Administration appears oblivious to the fact that “business is not usual” in a country where a major scandal involves its leadership and those around it. Some may wish to pretend others won’t be affected, or that the public won’t care, but leaders of democratic nations know their constituencies care. They will weigh this in their calculations of association with the U.S. and, when they can, find ways to dissociate themselves from this Administration and the “Epstein class.”

Our allies’ refusal to support the United States in Iran is more than a question about why the United States and Israel invaded Iran and how the war will end. The hard truth is that many now see the United States as a rogue actor and inconstant ally. We are seen as a country that disregards international law when it is inconvenient, undercuts multilateral institutions while insisting others respect them, treats human life as negotiable both at home and abroad, and uses alliances as instruments of pressure rather than partnerships of mutual respect.

There is another truth this Administration and this Nation must confront: military power alone does not confer leadership, nor does it automatically confer respect. This Administration cannot bomb its way into legitimacy. The U.S. cannot ignore international processes that help ensure stability in the international system – a system the United States helped establish after World War II.

Sadly, this Administration has repeatedly shown itself willing to punish or abandon partners when convenient, and there is no reason to assume this would be any different were an ally to provide military support to the Iranian War. Under those conditions, refusal is not seen by our allies as betrayal. It is seen as responsible self-preservation.

If the United States wants allies to stand with it again in future crises, it must change course.

As a start, this Administration must restore a strong, respected State Department and make genuine consultation with allies the default, not the exception. Partners and allies must be treated as equals, not subordinates. This Administration must publicly and clearly commit to following international law, supporting the United Nations, and engaging in serious multilateral diplomacy.

Just as importantly, The Administration must align the United States’ domestic policies with the values we claim to uphold. It must end abusive detention practices, value migrant lives, and hold our own officials to account when they violate the law or basic ethics. If we fail to rebuild international respect, credibility, and partnership, we will be treated as a rogue national and inconstant ally, which will only benefit America’s adversaries.

Ambassador (ret.) Bonnie Jenkins is currently the Shapiro Visiting Professor of International Affairs at the Elliot School of International Affairs at George Washington University. She is also Founder and Executive Director of Women of Color Advancing Peace and Security (WCAPS). Jenkins served as the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. From 2009 – 2017, Jenkins served as Special Envoy and Coordinator for Threat Reduction Programs in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation with the rank of Ambassador. She is a member of The Steady State.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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A former FBI director, a decorated Marine, and a lifelong public servant, Robert Mueller, was publicly denounced as “a disgrace to our country” by a sitting president. This was a moment in recent American life that should give us pause, not only because it was crass personal and political rhetoric, but because it revealed a collision between two fundamentally different visions of power.

On one side stood a man whose career was defined by restraint, process, and fidelity to the rule of law. Mr. Mueller was not a political showman. He did not campaign, posture, or trade in spectacles. His authority came from something quieter, and rarer: credibility earned over decades of service. Mr. Mueller’s career reflected an unwavering fidelity to the rule of law, echoing Aristotle’s insight that it is better to be governed by laws than by even the best of men.

On the other side is a president who demonstrates a vision of laws as obstacles and of public servants not as guardians of fairness, but as instruments to be wielded or dismissed.

In a constitutional democracy, Mr. Mueller represented the epitome of what the system hopes to produce: professionals tasked with applying the law impartially, regardless of who holds power. But to a President who demands fealty to his personal rule, to autocracy, those same individuals become liabilities: A person committed to evidence, procedure, and legal boundaries cannot be easily pressured, flattered, or threatened with altering conclusions. They do not bend narratives to suit political needs. They do not confuse loyalty to a leader with loyalty to a country.

Such individuals are dangerous to an autocratic wannabe, not because they seek power, but because they refuse to misuse it; integrity cannot be controlled. I lived under such an autocrat: Panama’s General Manual Noriega. The language may be different, but the logic is the same: those who cannot be controlled must be discredited. And when such leaders begin to disparage those who uphold rules and norms, it is rarely an isolated act. It is part of a broader pattern, one in which independent institutions must be weakened, critics must be delegitimized, and accountability is reframed as persecution.

What makes this dynamic particularly dangerous in a democracy is that it does not always arrive with dramatic events. It often unfolds gradually, through normalization. Each attack is written off as just another headline. Each erosion of trust becomes just another partisan dispute. Until one day, the democratic system is no longer there.

So as tempting as it is to see the Trump-Mueller moment as evidence of just another personal dispute or one leader attacking one official, we must recognize it for what it is: A wannabe autocrat discrediting the values Mr. Mueller lived:

  • Rule of Law over Personal Allegiance

  • Credibility shaped by Integrity

  • Loyalty to the Constitution

A nation is not ultimately defined by its leaders alone, but by what it chooses to honor. If those who follow the law are mocked, while those who challenge it are celebrated, the inversion is not merely rhetorical; it is structural. Figures like Robert Mueller are not beyond criticism. No public servant is. But when integrity itself becomes the object of attack, something more fundamental is at stake.

The health of a republic depends on whether its citizens can still distinguish between power and principle, and whether they are willing to defend the latter when it comes under fire. Because once integrity is treated as a liability rather than a virtue, the question is no longer about any one investigation, or any one presidency. It is about what kind of country we are becoming.

Martha Duncan is a retired U.S. Department of Defense senior executive with 37 years of service, including 23 years as an officer in the U.S. Army Reserves, where she also served as Reserve Attache. She had three operational deployments to Panama, Bosnia, and Afghanistan. At DIA, she worked as a Latin American analyst for 11 years. A specialist in human intelligence (HUMINT), she is recognized for her leadership in intelligence operations, coalition-building, and enterprise-level policy development across the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the U.S. Army, and the broader Intelligence Community. She grew up in Panama during the rise of Manuel Noriega and was instrumental in his capture.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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