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From the Metropolitan Museum of Art Collection

When leaders face no consequences, democracy depends on voters—and the window to enforce accountability is closing.

When I saw the video of Kash Patel splashing beer around an Olympic locker room, two things struck me: I’m so thankful I’m no longer serving in the FBI, and Julius Caesar was right to divorce his wife.

To indulge in a little Roman history: it’s 64 BCE, and Julius Caesar has just won election to pontifex. Meanwhile, another nobleman, Clodius, is pursuing his wife, Pompeia. While Pompeia attends a religious ceremony barred to men, Clodius sneaks in, confessing he waits for Pompeia when the women find him. Caesar immediately divorces Pompeia in the fallout, providing no evidence against Clodius at the subsequent trial. When the judges ask how he can divorce her without proof to share, Caesar answers, “because my wife ought not even to be under suspicion.”

Now, as a newlywed myself, I disagree with Caesar’s approach to marriage. But the concept that those holding office must be held to standards so high that power becomes more burden than privilege is one we should embrace. Demanding and upholding standards of behavior from our public officials at the ballot box is among the most powerful ways we can reinforce the fundamental premise of our governmental system – our officials work for us.

Decline into Kakistocracy

Americans have a well-earned cynicism about those leading the institutions charged with safeguarding our health, economic future, and national security. That cynicism significantly predates the kakistocracy of 2026. Indeed, our nation’s highest officers already abdicated standards of conduct. How else to explain the Senate confirming a cabinet member who allows her husband to allegedly assault civil servants in government buildings, or a Director of National Intelligence whose affinity for Kremlin talking points is so ludicrously inappropriate? Supreme Court justices apparently personally decided lavish gifts from individuals aren’t bribes long before Snyder v. United States, and people regularly invest in the stock market using dashboards duplicating trades by Congressional members who sit on the affected committees. Our refusal to confront such behavior has made it easier to accept an increasingly venal political system, and that system naturally paved the way for opportunistic authoritarians.

The Onset of Authoritarianism

This administration, like all authoritarian regimes, demands that the population adhere to strict rules susceptible to change at any moment. The White House runs roughshod over both law and what turns out to be just norms and not actual laws; it’s the people who must adjust. This administration tells us we must not exercise our right to protest or to carry a gun. Don’t remind our servicemembers of their rights and obligations. Don’t take a scenic drive. The administration lulls people into self-soothing with the lie that if you just follow directions, you’ll be okay. If you aren’t an immigrant or don’t look like an immigrant, you won’t be deported. If you don’t get between an untrained ICE agent in sneakers and an “illegal,” you won’t be killed. If you aren’t transgender, or if no one thinks you’re transgender, you’ll be safe. If you have your birth certificate on hand, you’ll still be allowed to vote.

But these expectations only go one way. Such regimes do not consider themselves beholden to the people, and so the only behavior that matters is how deferential an official is to the leader. When Kash Patel makes a fool of himself in Milan and wastes our tax dollars for his girlfriend’s security detail, he’s showing us this new playbook. He’s telling Americans that the position he occupies is not worthy of dignity. He doesn’t work for us. He works for President Trump. And Trump, who sees himself as a king, as a pontifex, and as a pilot dumping feces on Americans, certainly doesn’t consider himself a public servant.

President Trump and his circle interpret government as something to use for self-enrichment, not something precious to steward. He won’t change.

Forging Something Better

But it’s not too late to forge something better. With midterms upon us, we have the opportunity to evaluate the character and capabilities of the people we trust to make decisions on our behalf. If the last year taught us anything, it’s that citizens have limited tools to confront flagrant abuses of power. We are, to a frightening extent, at the mercy of a cohort of legislators who either endorse the abandonment of a functioning republic or are too weak to confront it.

We cannot settle for voting in a status quo that facilitated this active dismantling of our republic. We must instead seize this opportunity to express this fundamental democratic principle that all power is derived from the people, and that each of those people, from the poorest to the most privileged, are of equal inherent value.

The White House is telling us we aren’t citizens, but subjects to be ruled. We cannot accept that demotion.

Max Estevao is a former FBI Intelligence Analyst who covered Latin America and Middle East counterintelligence issues. He left federal service in 2025 and now works in private strategic intelligence and security consulting.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rFounded Rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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By Guest Author: H.E. Emmett Imani

When pressure sounds like permission to target civilian lifelines, it stops deterring adversaries and starts inviting escalation—with consequences that won’t stay theoretical.

The current tone surrounding Donald Trump and Iran is not simply another episode of political pressure. It is moving into a territory where language itself begins to shape outcomes.

Recent remarks referencing the destruction of bridges and electrical generation systems deserve careful attention. These are not abstract targets. They’re parts of civilian life. Hospitals, water systems, communications, and food distribution are sustained by power grids. Bridges are not just transportation routes. They are arteries for civilian movement, evacuation, and economic continuity.

Under the framework of the Geneva Conventions, actions affecting civilian infrastructure are subject to longstanding international legal standards governing proportionality and distinction. Public statements that seem to endorse or normalize attacks on such systems without clearly defined military necessity could risk being interpreted as inconsistent with these obligations. Even when no action follows, the signaling itself carries weight.

This is where misinterpretation begins to expand beyond intent.

Other nations, particularly those already skeptical of U.S. strategic posture, may read such language not as conditional or tactical, but as permissive. A willingness to degrade civilian infrastructure can be interpreted as a lowering of thresholds. That perception does not remain contained. It travels through diplomatic channels, intelligence assessments, and alliance discussions. It shapes reactions.

The strategic consequences are immediate, even if they are not always visible.

Escalatory rhetoric increases regional risk. It raises the probability of miscalculation across the Gulf. It places pressure on already fragile balances involving energy transit routes, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, where even limited disruption has global economic implications. It complicates alliance cohesion, especially among partners who must publicly reconcile security cooperation with adherence to humanitarian norms.

At the same time, history suggests something more grounded, almost predictable. Broad threats against civilian systems rarely produce negotiation leverage. They tend to consolidate internal resistance. They narrow political space inside the targeted country. They make compromise look like surrender.

If the objective is to influence Iran’s leadership, this approach works against that goal.

There are alternatives, and they are not theoretical. They are practical, available, and consistent with both strategic and legal considerations.

First, recalibrate public language. Clarify that U.S. objectives remain limited and do not target civilian systems. Precision here is not cosmetic. It directly affects how messages are received and interpreted.

Second, signal conditional restraint. Pair any pressure with a visible boundary that reassures both allies and adversaries that escalation is not open-ended.

Third, open or reaffirm a diplomatic channel. Pressure without a pathway leads nowhere. Even adversarial engagement requires a defined exit ramp.

Fourth, reaffirm adherence to international humanitarian principles in both rhetoric and operational planning. This is not only a legal position. It is a strategic one. Credibility depends on consistency.

It is also important to acknowledge the reality facing leadership at this level. Decisions are not made in isolation. They are shaped by competing pressures, incomplete information, and urgency. That is understood. But it is precisely under those conditions that restraint becomes a strategic asset rather than a limitation.

As the Guardian of the House of Afshar, I emphasize that Iran is not reducible to its governing structure. It is a society with continuity, complexity, and a civilian population that cannot be abstracted into strategic targets. As an Ambassador of Peace, I emphasize that conflict prevention begins before conflict itself. It begins with language that does not unintentionally authorize escalation.

President Trump’s words, particularly regarding infrastructure, sit in a space where they can be understood in more than one way. That ambiguity is the risk. When references to disabling a nation’s lifelines enter public discourse without clear limitation, they begin to resemble, even if unintentionally, the language associated with prohibited conduct.

There remains a narrow window to recalibrate. To clarify intent. To restore precision in communication and preserve diplomatic options that have not yet fully closed

Because the question is no longer rhetorical.

When a leader speaks of dismantling the essential systems that sustain civilian life, even as a form of pressure, the world is left to decide how to interpret it. Whether as strategy, or as something closer to the edge of what international law was designed to prevent.

And once that line begins to blur, it does not stay theoretical for long.

Guest Author H.E. Emmett Imani is Guardian of the House of Afshar. Guardian of the House of Afshar, Ambassador of Peace, UNESCO Center for Peace. Founded by his descendants, [the House of Ashar] seeks to preserve, promote, and share the rich cultural, historical, and familial heritage of the Afshar dynasty, ensuring it is passed on to future generations. The House of Afshar stands as a symbol of unity, pride, and the enduring legacy of a remarkable history.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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Puppet or not, Donald Trump has delivered on nearly every strategic objective Russia could hope for from an American president.

Donald Trump has long appeared to be in the thrall of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In her October 2016 Presidential Campaign debate, Hillary Clinton called Trump a puppet for Putin. It struck a nerve, and an angry Trump responded, “No puppet! You’re the puppet!” Secretary Clinton was referring to multiple reports of Russian money bankrolling Trump’s candidacy and reported comments from Trump’s own sons regarding the prevalence of lots of Russian money invested in Trump businesses.

If you look at the many seriously extra-Constitutional actions Trump has carried out as President, there have been clear benefits to Putin and Russia to the equally clear detriment of the United States. From campaigning to destroy NATO, to threatening close allies and major trading partners with massive on-again off-again tariffs, to selling out Ukraine, to rewarding Russia for providing Iranians targeting data to kill American soldiers in the Gulf, Trump’s goal appears to be to weaken America’s world leadership, power, and prestige.

Ukraine has been bravely fighting to defend democracy against Russia, a brutal dictatorship that America has long considered a dangerous adversary. Yet Trump has rewarded Ukrainian courage by cutting off American aid, repeatedly belittling President Zelenskyy while praising aggressor Putin, and making it increasingly clear that he wants Putin to prevail.

With Trump’s seemingly impulsive start of an unprovoked war in the Middle East, the question is no longer whether Trump does things to weaken and diminish America globally; coincidentally, in lockstep with Putin’s dream of payback for America’s role in the dissolution of the communist Soviet Union.

Reminiscent of Trump’s 2018 Helsinki statement contradicting US intelligence and taking Putin’s word as conclusive that Russia played no role in the 2016 election, when asked about recent reports from Ukrainian and regional intelligence sources of Russian targeting American forces for Iran, Trump’s billionaire international negotiator-at-large, Steve Witkoff told the press in March that it’s not a problem, saying, “The Russians said they have not been sharing. That’s what they said. So, we can take them at their word.” This, despite Putin confirming Russia’s unwavering support of and solidarity with Iran. As if to confirm he is indeed still in Putin’s sway, in the wake of Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Trump lifted sanctions on Russian oil, gifting Putin freedom to sell unlimited amounts of its oil and finance Russian military aggression against Ukraine.

Trump first attracted Moscow’s beneficence when he needed cash bailouts in the 1980s and ‘90s. This financial dependence grew over time, making Trump increasingly susceptible to Russian influence. He was the perfect “Manchurian Candidate” for Putin: an American businessman with political ambitions who whom Putin would later help become President in exchange for “favors” to Putin. Trump is well known for being 100% amorally transactional, using whatever ideology, value system, or performative act suits the moment, while actually operating independently of any doctrine, to secure whatever he perceives will net him personal gain.

It is well known that Russian oligarchs laundered money through Trump’s business operations in the days of his multiple bankruptcies in the 1990s, when he could not get any loans from reputable banks. Russian financial “help” expanded considerably during the 2016 Presidential Campaign. The Center for American Progress has documented an expanded pattern of contacts and transfers of money between Russia-linked operatives and members of the 2016 Trump campaign and 2017 transition team, concluding “while an analysis of the publicly known transactions cannot answer all the questions about Trump’s involvement with Russia, they do show a significant nexus between his political campaign and Russian money and suggest a number of important avenues for further oversight and investigation.”

Trump’s 2016 Campaign Manager, Paul Manafort, who was previously employed by Putin’s people to install a pro-Russian puppet as Ukraine’s president in 2010, admitted that he was regularly feeding campaign strategy and polling information to Russian intelligence. Throughout the campaign, Manafort let Russian intelligence know how best to help Trump win, and it appears that Russia indeed jumped into American social media with viral bots and propaganda.

There are credible assertions from American intelligence sources that when Trump was first elected, there was literally partying in the Kremlin, celebrating a victory they believed they had made happen. In his first months in office, Trump outed an Israeli spy to the Russian Foreign Minister in what Trump thought was going to be a “secret Oval Office meeting.” Ironically, the Russians released an embarrassing photo to the press, resulting in Mossad having to relocate and provide a new identity for that spy. That in turn prompted the CIA to worry that a longtime American spy in the Kremlin was similarly vulnerable to Trump outing him to Putin. According to CNN and other reporting, the CIA concluded that the risk Trump had revealed or was about to reveal our human asset was so great that they pulled our spy out of Russia in 2017, the first year of Trump’s presidency.

The Steele Dossier and Mueller Report both suggest plausible reasons for Trump to act as Putin’s puppet (blackmail, money, and domestic political help). However, the former relied on confidential sources and was publicly squelched by a vigorous disinformation campaign, while the latter was limited in scope by then-Attorney General Barr. Over Trump’s first term in office, there were several meetings and calls with Putin and Russian leaders with apparent coordination and “meeting of the minds.” No memoranda or notes were taken; the most curious meeting being an unusually cordial, even jovial, tete-a-tete in the Oval Office with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, closed to media coverage with only a Russian propaganda “readout” afterward.

. Further, Trump’s January 2021 theft of highly classified national security secrets is, in itself, consistent with Trump continuing to act as Putin’s “useful idiot.” It is still unclear exactly why Trump stole that trove of classified material; he may have taken it to show to Putin, to sell to Putin, to sell to other nations, or to hoard it. But take the material he did, and having those documents in his Mar-a-Lago country club was a clear and significant national security problem for the United States. And a clear and significant national security problem for the United States is a clear and significant win for Mr. Putin. It proved to Putin that Trump would violate the strictest US regulations if he felt he could benefit or please another world leader. Even if this was not a task that Putin gave Trump, it was validation that Trump would take a significant risk to please Putin while endangering the national security of his own country. It was also some confirmation that Trump was eager to please Putin, which is not at all a trivial thing for his Russian counterparts to know should they need or want it.

Puppet or No Puppet? You be the judge. What specific actions to weaken America would Putin ask a puppet to pursue? A few very serious “asks”:

– Withdrawing US assistance to Ukraine to facilitate a Russian takeover. Check!
– Disengaging from US alliances to weaken the economic and military strength of the Western democracies. Check!
– Destabilizing and weakening the US economy through on-again, off-again crippling trade tariffs. Check!
– Belittling, attacking, sowing discord in NATO and EU nations to reduce their ability and confidence to counter a Russian expansionist agenda. Check!
– Lifting sanctions on Russian oil to provide more financial and material lifeblood to Russia’s military operations (which are simultaneously providing an active US adversary with targeting data on our troops). Double check!

The real question is, WHY would Trump want to enable Putin’s anti-America agenda? Why would he imperil three-quarters of a century of post-World War II American leadership, forging peace-promoting alliances, creating trade-enhancing partnerships, and conducting humanitarian democratic nation-building, undermining America’s strength and reputation?

His siding with a historically belligerent adversary nation begs the question whether Trump is operating as Putin’s quisling apostate. While there is as yet no “smoking gun” proof that he is, in fact, a Russian asset, Trump has certainly been doing all the things one would expect a well-placed Russian agent to do.

Douglas Clapp, Captain USCG (Ret.) is a member of The Steady State. His career service in Maritime Safety & Security culminated as Deputy Director of the Coast Guard’s Training & Education System, Reserve Component, and Leadership/Diversity functions. In his post-military career, he served as Senior Analyst for the Operations Directorate, USNORTHCOM as a missions expert in Defense of the Homeland and Defense Support of Civil Authorities for emergencies and disasters.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rFounded ule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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DATE-TIME GROUP: 04160800ZAPRIL26

FROM: EMBASSY OF FREDONIA, WASHINGTON, D.C.

TO: MFA NAGADOCHES

CLASSIFICATION: CONEOFSILENCE // FREDONIAN EYES ONLY

SUBJECT: “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL YEAR” – TRUMP’S SECOND‑TERM DOMESTIC AGENDA, TARIFFS, AND THE ADMINISTRATIVE STATE

SUMMARY:

IN ACCORDANCE WITH MFA DIRECTIVE 1826-APRIL-1, THIS EMBASSY HAS INITIATED A REGULAR SERIES OF ANALYTICAL DISPATCHES REGARDING THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SERIES, DESIGNATED “THE FREDONIA PROJECT,” WILL BE CIRCULATED UNDER STANDARD SITREP PROTOCOL. UNAUTHORIZED PUBLICATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED VIA A THIRD-PARTY ENTITY KNOWN AS “THE STEADY STATE.” PRESUMED LEAK. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

From February 2026 through March 2026, Donald Trump’s second term has been marked by a mix of legislative pushes, executive actions, policy shifts, and highly choreographed rhetoric designed to solidify last year’s trend towards authoritarianism in the form of centralized, personalized presidential power The White House frames this period as one of “historic progress,” claiming Trump has made “more progress in three weeks than they made in four years,” restored American “respect,” and delivered “record‑low” border encounters. From the outside, it looks more like a broad stress test on the US system: a deliberate effort to weaken the administrative state, use migration and crime as political organizing tools, weaponize tariffs and energy policy, and redefine the relationship between the presidency, federal agencies, and the law.

The Trump administration has issued a sweeping deregulation order requiring federal agencies to identify and roll back regulations and enforcement actions beyond explicit statutory authority. This is a systematic campaign to install Project 2025-ish plans to put the civil service under presidential control and trash any Obama‑ or Biden‑era rules. This order includes an expanding gray zone, under which enforcement depends less on an interpretation of statutes and more on White House preferences. (Ambassador comment: As with everything Trump, from the 90,000 square foot ballroom to Epic Fury, the president seeks to make the civil service of the United States reflect Trumpian values and goals. Given the history of failure of everything Trump – from real estate to casinos to steaks to a university to wine, should this new civil service triumph, it will be all form and little substance, providing few, if any, of the services the civil service is supposed to provide in support citizens of the United States.)

Immigration policy sits at the center of the Administration’s agenda. The actions that support that agenda include large‑scale deportations, tightened asylum access, and pressure on states to restrict licenses and IDs for undocumented residents. The White House routinely claims “millions” of removals and “self‑deportations,” negative net migration in 2025, and record‑low border encounters, while touting thousands of arrests and a sharp drop in fentanyl trafficking. (Ambassador comment: These numbers are complete nonsense; unsurprising given the weak link between Trump and Reality. It seems likely that the number of actions that support Trump’s policy agenda has political power within the Trump ecosystem, even as the definitions of these actions are contested. Additionally, and still unsurprisingly, the unbelievable numbers of these activities bolster Trump’s narrative, which criminalizes immigration, making extraordinary enforcement appear completely rational.)

Law‑and‑order politics extends beyond immigration. Under the “Save America Act” label, the Administration has advanced measures it describes as strengthening tools against violent and drug‑related crime and tightening election procedures, including litigation to gain access to state voter rolls. This bundle of policies ties criminal justice and immigration enforcement together, and nudges the federal government deeper into the mechanics of election administration, a function regulated at the state level. (Ambassador comment: The continuing attempts by Trump to unconstitutionally put a Federal thumb on the elections’ scales are clearly continuing apace. We assume this will continue either until the elections or until the courts rule against it. It is clearly unconstitutional, and even this Supreme Court should recognize that. Could, but may not.) Trump also created a new initiative for government efficiency, colloquially branded as a Department for Government Efficiency, or “DOGE,” with a prominent advisory role for Elon Musk. Officially, DOGE was tasked with rooting out “waste, fraud, and abuse” across federal programs and has been credited by the Administration with more than 200 billion dollars in projected savings. In fact, DOGE functioned as an instrument for reshaping the state from the inside: targeting disfavored programs, rewarding priorities aligned with presidential politics, and inviting an unusually close relationship between a politically allied billionaire and federal resource allocation. (Ambassador Comment: In the time since DOGE was created, the actual savings have proven far less substantial than DOGE and Trump claimed in February, March, April, and on and on. Through April 2025, DOGE has claimed that it saved 52.8 billion dollars; the actual amount saved is, at this point is likely far less. According to Politico, the savings were about 1.4 billion, nothing like the amount Trump, Musk, and their allies have claimed. Finally, it should be stressed that not only did the cuts not trim a ton of fat, but the federal government will likely have to hire contractors at a higher pay rate than the Federal employees Trump and company removed. The accomplishments of the Trump-Musk alliance seem to disappear when light focuses upon them.)

Perhaps the easiest thread to track as it runs through this period is Trump’s campaign against what he calls the “deep state” or “administrative state.” He now openly promises to “destroy the deep state,” “fire the unelected tyrants” in Washington, and replace “rogue bureaucrats” with “patriots.” These statements track closely with external planning documents such as Project 2025 that call for mass personnel changes, ideological screening of civil servants, and expanded presidential control over agencies traditionally considered semi‑independent. Combined with the deregulatory order, DOGE’s activities, and ongoing attacks on inspectors general and independent watchdogs, Trump’s stated plans signal an ambition not just to win elections and pass laws, but to fundamentally remake the relationship between the presidency, the bureaucracy, and the rule of law. (Ambassador Comment: As noted above, it seems likely that if the U.S. government ever replaces people and capabilities Musk shredded, the cost of the government will increase by millions of dollars. And, so, another version of Trump economics fails spectacularly; quelle surprise. And the set of inglorious failures to date keeps getting longer.)

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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In the latest episode of the Sentinel, American University Adjunct professor and Scholar‑in‑Residence, Alex Joel, joins host Peter Mina to unpack how democracies can fight real threats without becoming one themselves, exploring the post‑9/11 “connect the dots” mindset, the Privacy Act’s enduring role, and how data, protest, and transparency collide.

Watch and listen to new Sentinel episodes each Tuesday. Subscribe and review us on your favorite podcast platform.

Guest Info: Alex Joel is a Scholar‑in‑Residence and Adjunct Professor at American University’s Washington College of Law, where he leads the Privacy Across Borders initiative and focuses on the intersection of national security, technology, privacy, and civil liberties. He previously served as the longtime Chief of the Office of Civil Liberties, Privacy and Transparency at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, acting as the Intelligence Community’s Civil Liberties Protection Officer and later its Chief Transparency Officer after earlier service as an attorney at the CIA.

View the episode transcript.

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A one-day negotiation, a “final offer,” and no follow-up plan—this wasn’t serious diplomacy; it was a setup for failure with dangerous consequences.

Given the inexperience, inflexibility, and overconfidence the US team brought to Islamabad for talks with Iran on April 11, it was not surprising that nothing was achieved. Heavy-handed attempts at coercion and brinksmanship were bound once again to fail. For Vice President J.D. Vance to say he gave Iran Washington’s “final and best offer” at the outset suggests a serious misreading of how such negotiations work. The Trump Administration, which touts its deal-making skills, was out of its depth. One also cannot help but wonder if it is just going through the motions or setting Vance up to be the fall guy.

Reaching meaningful, lasting agreements is hard and takes time. Every successful negotiation involving foreign adversaries has lasted weeks, months, or years. The 1968-1973 Vietnam Paris Peace process, for example, took nearly five years. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal that Trump tore up during his first term was the culmination of a 20-month negotiation. Ending talks in Islamabad after just one 21-hour session was diplomatic malpractice.

Sending Vance to Islamabad to lead talks with Iran ostensibly demonstrated gravitas. It certainly was a step up from the real-estate mogul-led team previously deployed. While Vance has no more experience in Middle East affairs or nuclear technology than diplomatic neophytes Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, at least he is accountable to the public. In previous talks with Iran, Witkoff and Kushner failed to understand Iran’s offers, the technical realities of its nuclear program, or the status of its weaponization efforts. Their misinforming President Trump that Tehran was not negotiating seriously encouraged him to begin his disastrous war.

Unlike those previous engagements, Vance brought along a “technical team,” which included Vance’s National Security Adviser, Andrew Baker, and Michael Vance (no relation), special adviser to the Vice President for Asian affairs, both political appointees. The White House said “a full suite of experts” was in Islamabad or supporting the team from Washington. One would hope the team included career officials well-versed in Iran matters, nuclear non-proliferation and sanctions. But such expertise has become increasingly rare in the federal government after purges initiated by DOGE and continued under Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Those who remain in place are understandably leery of stepping out of line and offering advice that might contradict the positions of senior officials.

Vance’s short press event after emerging from the failed 21-hour talks indicated he does not have a handle on how diplomacy works. Success requires finding common ground. Experienced negotiators seek to understand the other side’s motivations and concerns and to explore alternatives to skirt roadblocks. For Vance to say that “Iran would not accept our terms” reflects a “my way or the highway” attitude. Framing it that way ensures failure.

Successful negotiations also depend on building trust. Whatever trust the United States had built in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal was shattered when President Trump abandoned the deal in 2018. He deepened Iran’s distrust last June and again in February when he launched strikes while supposedly negotiating a replacement.

A key US goal is to deny Iran the ability to produce nuclear weapons. This requires durable limits on uranium enrichment and on enriched uranium stockpiles. For decades, Iran’s own red line has been to preserve what it regards as a right to this technology. This need not be a deal breaker. As one of us recently assessed, various technical means could preserve the non-proliferation goal without crossing either side’s red line on enrichment. Alternatively, since Iran is currently not enriching, thanks to last June’s attacks, the status quo could be extended for some years, leaving the future status and the issue of a right to enrichment ambiguous or for future talks.

A top priority could be to verifiably eliminate Iran’s stockpile of near-weapon-grade uranium. This requires Iran’s cooperation and international inspections; there is no plausible military option to seize or destroy the canisters of highly enriched uranium buried underground. And a key to Iran’s continued cooperation is that it remains in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which prohibits it from obtaining nuclear weapons. US attacks could backfire if they spur Iran to withdraw from the treaty and permanently remove its nuclear program from international constraints and inspections, making the problem even more intractable.

Whether there will be future talks is unclear. Normally, when negotiations stall, momentum can still be preserved by the expediency of scheduling another round. Vance made no mention of this. While Iran has hinted at interest in continuing to meet, Trump is doubling down on military tools, announcing a complete blockade of Iranian shipping, with more bullying and bluster aimed at allies and adversaries alike. The optics of his being at an Ultimate Fighting Championship event in Miami rather than monitoring the talks from the White House Situation Room show how little regard he had for the diplomatic effort.

Trump is delusional if he really believes that Iran “will come back and… give us everything we want.” After six weeks of strategic disaster overshadowing tactical successes, he needs to ditch his “Art of the Deal” hard-ball approach and engage in genuine deal-making. Serious diplomacy offers the only off-ramp to his ill-conceived war.

Mark Fitzpatrick is a retired US diplomat who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Non-Proliferation. As an Associate Fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, he has engaged in many track II meetings with Iranian counterparts. He is a member of The Steady State

Mark Goodman is a senior scientist who retired from the State Department in 2025 after a thirty-year civil service career, working extensively on international nuclear policy. Dr. Goodman is a non-resident fellow at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a Fellow of the American Physical Society. He is a member of The Steady State

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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We assess that Donald Trump’s second presidential term exhibits increasingly personalized, dominance-oriented leadership, shaped by strong partisan control, expanded executive authority, and a staff culture emphasizing loyalty over moderation. His governing style prioritizes image, legacy, and symbolic strength over institutional process, contributing to policy volatility and making long-term forecasting difficult, even as he sometimes recalibrates when faced with sustained political, economic, or strategic resistance.

Less Restrained Second Term

We assess that Trump is less constrained in his second term than in his first, due to greater ideological consolidation within the Republican Party, legal developments expanding presidential immunity, and a White House environment that rewards fealty and sidelines moderating voices. The absence of future electoral pressures, combined with accumulated grievances from his first term and post-presidency period, further reduces self-restraint and incentivizes aggressive use of executive tools. Trump has publicly downplayed external checks, suggesting his primary constraint is his own judgment, reflecting a personalized understanding of presidential authority rather than one rooted in constitutional limits.

Cult of Personality and Image Politics

Trump’s leadership is anchored in a personality cult centered on ego, self-importance, and image management, where personal brand and public office are deeply intertwined. He embraces stylized, mythologizing portrayals of himself, including heroic, pop-cultural, and religious imagery, as tools to project singular authority and justify an exceptional role outside normal democratic expectations. Political psychology research on personality-centered movements aligns with this pattern, in which loyalty to the leader becomes central to supporters’ political identity and rhetoric emphasizes his invulnerability and unique status above ordinary accountability.

We assess that Trump increasingly blurs the line between the presidency and his private brand, with a strong focus on visible markers of power such as naming rights, prominent buildings, and large symbolic projects that foreground his personal image. His worldview appears heavily shaped by entertainment media and nostalgic mid-twentieth-century imagery, prioritizing the appearance of strength over functional effectiveness and rewarding followers who mimic his style as demonstrations of fealty. With low confidence, we judge that age-related decline is more likely to intensify negative impulses than to moderate them, given the increasingly disruptive trajectory of his rhetoric and behavior over the past decade.

Transactional Governance

We assess that transactionalism remains a core dimension of Trump’s leadership, with individuals, institutions, and foreign states evaluated primarily in terms of deals, leverage, and personal or political gain rather than values, norms, or collective goods. Government processes, rule of law, and democracy itself tend to be treated as instruments to be exploited for advantage rather than independent constraints embodying shared societal standards. This pattern is particularly visible in foreign policy, where he seeks high-profile deals in arenas such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe without consistent regard for durability, underlying causes, or long-term strategic balance.

Transactional logic also extends to relationships with elites and donors, where large financial contributions or strategic investments have been closely linked in reporting to access and favorable policy outcomes. Trump tends to operate through exchange relationships, whether financial, political, or loyalty-based, rather than through institutionalized policy frameworks, and he often devalues motives tied to sacrifice, ideology, or public service that do not align with his deal-making worldview.

Mafia Style Leadership and Bullying

We assess that Trump routinely employs dominance-based leadership patterns that parallel protection rackets and organized crime models, emphasizing loyalty enforcement, intimidation, and selective reward and punishment. He maintains personal reward networks, keeps long memories of perceived betrayal, and uses public targeting, humiliation, and reputational attacks as tools to discipline subordinates and adversaries. Policy moves, including unilateral tariff threats and coercive bargaining with allies, often resemble protection schemes aimed at extracting concessions or public capitulation rather than deriving from coherent economic or strategic frameworks.

Bullying appears as a distinct, recurring strategy, frequently aimed at weaker or more vulnerable targets while avoiding equal-risk confrontations with peers or stronger opponents. Trump integrates bullying into governance by using visible attacks to signal the costs of dissent and shape the risk calculations of surrounding actors, consistent with research on bullying as a mechanism of social control. He favors family members and long-time business associates for sensitive roles, reinforcing a quasi-clan structure and reducing reliance on professional, norm-bound civil servants whom he often views with suspicion.

Bigotry and Retrograde Social Hierarchy

We assess with moderate confidence that Trump holds instinctive, if not fully worked-out ideological, preferences aligned with a nostalgic mid-twentieth-century social hierarchy privileging white, male, and traditional gender and sexual norms. From his early promotion of false claims about Barack Obama’s citizenship to his stance on the Central Park Five, patterns of racialized grievance and bigotry have been recurrent features of his public life. These instincts often inform policy preferences when not overridden by transactional or tactical considerations, contributing to exclusionary, punitive approaches toward immigrants, racial and religious minorities, and other vulnerable groups.

Trump’s Make America Great Again framing amplifies boomer-era nostalgia and resistance to social changes since the 1950s, reinforcing a worldview that sees many post–civil rights advances as threats rather than progress. In his second term, these instincts appear increasingly institutionalized through aligned appointees and policy entrepreneurs who share his views and possess the expertise to implement harsh measures, making bigotry not just a personal failing but a driver of state policy.

Real Estate Developer Worldview

We assess that Trump’s long career in real estate strongly shapes his conception of power as acquisition, branding, and ownership, with a focus on tangible assets, physical infrastructure, and territorial control. He places outsized emphasis on naming rights, large projects, and branded programs, treating them as essential to legacy and recognition, and has pursued renaming or imprinting his brand on major public sites and government initiatives. Reported comments that historical figures failed by not putting their names on property reflect this deeply ingrained branding logic.

Internationally, his mindset aligns with an imperial frame in which powerful states acquire territory and dominate others, as reflected in musings about annexing Greenland or incorporating Canada as an additional state. He treats ownership rather than treaties or alliances as the ultimate guarantee of control and has expressed admiration for historical imperial projects while downplaying or ignoring associated exploitation and violence. This outlook encourages zero-sum, asset-focused thinking in both domestic and foreign policy.

Inconsistent Decision Making

We assess that Trump lacks a stable, institutionalized decision-making framework beyond shifting perceptions of personal self-interest, grievance, and symbolic gain. He relies heavily on instinct and the influence of the last person in the room, producing frequent reversals and inconsistent rationales for major actions, including the use of military force against Iran and other adversaries. In his first term, more professional staff sometimes slowed or reshaped his impulses; in his second term, a more loyal and ideologically aligned entourage appears to amplify rather than constrain them.

Policy is often announced via social media or abrupt executive actions with limited interagency coordination, contributing to chaos and unpredictable implementation. This volatility empowers sycophantic advisers who can frame their preferred policies as ego-affirming or grievance-satisfying, thereby channeling his impulsivity into more extreme or coherent ideological projects. Such dynamics complicate forecasting, as outcomes depend less on structured processes than on the interplay of mood, flattery, and perceived personal stakes.

Implications

We assess that Trump tends not to compromise unless confronted with an equal or greater demonstration of strength, leverage, or clear personal costs, especially in the absence of internal institutional constraints. He is simultaneously risk averse when facing credible opposition and risk acceptant when imposing costs on weaker actors, leading to bellicose rhetoric followed by tactical retreats that he then rhetorically reframes as victories. External actors, including foreign governments, markets, and domestic institutions, have at times successfully constrained him by imposing clear economic or strategic consequences, as seen when market sell-offs or coordinated resistance forced partial reversals of aggressive tariff or sanction announcements.

Other players experiment with combinations of accommodation and resistance, often beginning with ego-stroking gestures but ultimately needing coordinated pushback to alter his course. Attempts to appease him without meaningful counter leverage tend to invite further demands, while clear, unified resistance can sometimes generate tactical retreats, even as he escalates grievance narratives for his base.

Uncertainty and Forecast Limits

We assess that Trump’s personality will continue to play an outsized role in United States policy, but personality-based forecasting remains inherently difficult and uncertain. With moderate confidence, we judge that salient traits such as ego, bullying, and grievance sensitivity are likely to intensify as domestic and international resistance grows, given his aversion to acknowledging error or accepting defeat. We cannot reliably predict how aging will interact with these dimensions; with low confidence, we assess that advancing age in a less constrained second term environment is more likely to exacerbate existing patterns than to mellow them.

Corruption and Conflicts of Interest

We assess that Trump’s transactional orientation, refusal to fully separate from his business interests, and willingness to leverage public office for private gain create significant corruption risks and conflicts of interest. External reporting indicates that he and his family have profited substantially during his second term through ventures closely linked to his political position, including a financial and crypto start-up in which foreign, state-linked investors acquired major stakes while later receiving favorable policy outcomes.

In January, a reporter for the New Yorker magazine estimated that President Trump and his family have made approximately $4 billion during his first year of his second term by leveraging his office. Particularly through the family’s linkages with financial start up World Liberty Financial: his three sons are cofounders with Trump himself listed as co-founder emeritus. Four days before President Trump’s second inauguration, the UAE national security advisor and brother of the UAE President invested $500 million for a 49% stake in the company. Roughly five months later the UAE was able to negotiate administration approval to purchase powerful A.I. chips that the U.S. had previously declined to approve for export to that country. The Administration denied any connection.

Trump’s administration has significantly weakened the government’s anti-corruption infrastructure. In January 2025, he fired at least 17 inspector generals. In February 2025, he ordered the DoJ to pause enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. In May and June of that year, DoJ issued revised FCPA guidance to emphasize cases that impact U.S. competitiveness and national security. At the same time press reports indicated that the administration sharply reduced the number of attorneys at the DOJ’s Public Integrity Section from over 30 attorneys to around 5 and suspended its ability to review potential cases against members of Congress and other public officials to prevent politically motivated prosecutions.

Institutionally, his administration has weakened anti-corruption safeguards by firing inspectors general, narrowing enforcement of foreign bribery statutes, and reducing the capacity of the Justice Department’s public integrity functions, thereby undermining oversight. Civil and criminal cases alleging fraudulent financial practices in his business empire, including judicial findings of deliberate overvaluation of assets to secure better loan terms, reinforce concerns about his ethical fitness for high office and the compatibility of his leadership style with rule-of-law governance.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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Trump Showers Public Love on Orban in His Hour of… | Go Local Prov

“We have got to get Viktor Orbán reelected… what the United States and Hungary together represent… is the defense of Western civilization.” — JD Vance

Exporting Illiberalism

When a sitting American vice president flies to Hungary not to conduct diplomacy, but to campaign for a foreign strongman, it is not subtle. It is a signal. The endorsement of Viktor Orbán by Donald Trump’s political movement is not about Hungary. It is about importing a model.

And that model is clear: hollow out democratic institutions, consolidate power, weaponize grievance, and call it “Western civilization.” In recent days, Vance didn’t just praise Orbán, he echoed his worldview, attacking the European Union, defending nationalist policies, and urging Hungarian voters to keep Orbán in power. The message wasn’t coded. It was an explicit alignment.

The Orbán Model

Orbán has spent over a decade building what he calls an “illiberal state.” In practice, that has meant consolidating power at every level. Independent media outlets have been bought up, shuttered, or brought under government-friendly control. Election laws have been rewritten to favor the ruling party. Courts have been weakened. Civil society organizations have been stigmatized and constrained. And universities, especially those seen as ideologically inconvenient, have been pushed out or brought to heel. I had the pleasure of speaking and participating in a variety of events at the Central European University before Orban ran it out of town. That was a warning shot to every institution that independence would not be tolerated.

Orbán’s rhetoric has sadly matched his actions. His government has trafficked in anti-immigrant fear, openly racialized narratives about preserving Hungarian identity, and messaging that critics across Europe have repeatedly described as flirting with antisemitic tropes. This is politics rooted in division, defining “the people” narrowly, and casting everyone else as a threat.

Meanwhile, corruption has flourished. Orbán’s inner circle has grown extraordinarily wealthy, even as many Hungarians face stagnant wages, strained public services, and declining economic mobility. This is the system Vance is calling “successful.”

A Glimpse of Intent

The Trump parallels are not subtle. They are the point.

Like Orbán, Donald Trump has attacked independent media as illegitimate. Like Orbán, he has sought to undermine courts, politicize law enforcement, and purge institutions of those seen as insufficiently loyal. His worldview, like Orbán’s, frames politics as an existential struggle in which normal democratic constraints are obstacles to be overcome.

What Orbán represents is the end-state of that approach. Not chaos, but control. Not the collapse of democracy, but its transformation into something managed, where elections still occur, but the playing field is so tilted that outcomes are rarely in doubt. That’s why admiration matters. It’s not rhetorical. It’s aspirational.

Loyalty Over Liberty

At its core, the Orbán model replaces pluralism with loyalty. Institutions are no longer valued for their independence or expertise, but for their alignment with the ruling ideology. Universities must conform. The media must reinforce. Courts must validate.

Sound familiar?

This is the same instinct driving efforts in the United States to purge the civil service, intimidate journalists, and reshape education around political priorities. It is governance by loyalty over competence because loyalty is easier to control.

The result in Hungary has not been renewal. It has been stagnation. Despite the rhetoric of strength and sovereignty, the average Hungarian is no better. Public services have eroded. Economic gains have been uneven. And the country’s international standing has suffered as it drifts away from democratic allies and toward more authoritarian partners.

Transactional Power, No Memory

Trump’s foreign policy reflects the same instinct: transactionalism without continuity, pressure without strategy, and engagement without institutional memory.

In Iran, U.S. attacks have failed to alter the underlying structure of power. The regime remains intact, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps even more central to its survival architecture than before. Repression continues, dissent is crushed, and long-standing strategic behaviors (regional proxy activity and nuclear ambition) remain embedded in state policy.

In Venezuela, similarly, sanctions and pressure have not produced democratic restoration. Instead, the same governing coalition remains dominant, elections will remain constrained, opposition figures harassed or imprisoned, and political competition tightly managed.

In both cases, the pattern is the same: attack, declare progress, move on, while the underlying systems adapt and endure. That is not a strategy. It is drift, with the predictable result that problems are not resolved, only deferred. In both countries, the leadership survives. The system persists. And ordinary citizens bear the consequences.

A Test of Limits—And a Verdict

Sunday, Hungarian voters delivered a result that many observers had considered increasingly uncertain: Viktor Orbán conceded defeat after an unexpectedly decisive electoral loss.

That fact matters for two reasons. First, it demonstrates that even systems designed for durability have limits. Even heavily managed political environments can produce outcomes that their architects cannot control. And even long-entrenched leaders can be forced, by the electorate, to accept defeat.

Second, Orbán conceded, in contrast to a more troubling pattern in contemporary politics: the normalization of refusal to accept electoral outcomes when they are unfavorable. In the United States, that norm has already been tested in ways that continue to shape political behavior and institutional trust. That divergence should not be ignored.

For years, Orbán has been treated in certain American political circles as a kind of proof of concept: that a leader can reshape institutions, consolidate authority, and maintain electoral legitimacy simultaneously. His defeat complicates that narrative. It suggests that even after sustained institutional capture, electoral accountability can reassert itself when public tolerance for stagnation, corruption, and democratic constraint reaches its limit.

That is not a Hungarian lesson. It is a democratic one. And it is a reminder that political systems are not static, that control and permanence are not the same thing, and that legitimacy, once eroded, is difficult to indefinitely sustain through institutional engineering alone.

The United States will face its own tests soon enough, this November and again in 2028. The question is not whether illiberal models can be admired or studied. The question is whether they can be replicated or resisted when pressure is applied at home. Hungary has now offered its answer. The United States must answer similarly.

Bruce Berton served as a U.S. diplomat for over three decades, ultimately rising to the senior ranks of the Foreign Service, including two years as Ambassador and Head of Mission at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He is a Pacific Northwest native and a graduate of Pacific Lutheran University. He is a member of The Steady State.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of over 390 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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A lifetime of leadership experience leads to a stark conclusion: Donald Trump’s lack of competence and empathy is not just a personal flaw—it is a national security risk, now dangerously exposed in a war with Iran.

Tragically, Donald Trump is incapable of providing effective leadership for our Armed Forces or the nation, and has proven so repeatedly. The still expanding war of choice with Iran makes this statement even more pressing and alarming. I have published, spoken on, and taught leadership principles for over four decades. There are two primary components of good leadership: competence and caring. America’s once and again chief executive is a clear failure on both counts. His unilateral, disastrous decision to go to war with Iran provides illumination.

You have heard it before, but it bears repetition. This Oval Office occupant exhibits all the behaviors of a malignant narcissist. Narcissists like this lack empathy. Empathy is a key character trait of all effective leaders. Despite voluminous discussion of Trump’s shortcomings, rarely is his lack of empathy, the ability to genuinely care about the fate of those beyond himself and his immediate family, highlighted as a causal factor in his leadership deficiency. We all know that quality, effective leadership matters; soldiers know and depend on this factor better than most. Effective leaders inspire us to become the best version of ourselves. A truly caring leader would have considered and planned for the circumstances and consequences of the actions he was directing the military to undertake. And, he would have prepared and mobilized the nation to support those actions while explaining their urgency. He did neither.

When it comes to competence, history’s judgement will be harsh. This Commander-in-Chief may be the least capable of performing national security functions of any that ever sat behind the desk. Effective leadership in this context is about making wise and informed decisions, acting with integrity, bolstering the nation’s (rather than personal) well-being, accepting responsibility, and possessing the character to bear burdens for others, easing them when possible. This White House occupant renounces responsibility like the mongoose recoils from the cobra’s strike. His straight-from-the-hip and go-to position appears to be to lie, dissemble, and blame others. He plays the role of victim constantly and with undisguised relish.

Regarding the war of choice against Iran, his leadership mistakes are egregious. Trump chose a wholly unqualified self-promoter with repugnant views and past behavior to lead his self-styled Department of “War.” He refused to seek Congressional counsel or approval prior to engaging in hostilities, preferring the advice of his son-in-law and business cronies. He embraced the long disproven notion that air-power alone could compel surrender, an idea surely not promoted by senior military advisers. He shunned collaboration, insulting our NATO allies – calling them cowards – and endangered the Gulf Cooperation Council nations.

As the battle was joined, he insisted that the war was already won in the midst of a clearly continuing and escalating conflict while leaving many American citizens stranded in the region, for lack of evacuation planning. Moreover, he failed to anticipate what everyone in the US Intelligence Community surely knew: that Iran would respond by threatening the Strait of Hormuz, effectively shutting down 20% of the globe’s oil distribution, and driving up the cost of gas at the pump. Finally, but hardly least, he appears to be preparing for a ground assault option that could result in significant American military casualties. The list of missteps goes on and grows longer daily.

It is a well-established truth that competent and caring leaders earn their peoples’ respect and loyalty. I have studied leadership throughout my adult life, learning at the feet of exceptional senior sergeants and officers in the US Army’s Special Forces. I know this subject through academics as well, but more importantly, a half-century of deep professional experience. Mr. Trump is not equal to the challenge of leading our nation. Regrettably, he lacks both required components of effective leadership: competence and caring. Both components are bolstered and accentuated by striving to be a good person. This chief executive failed that test a long time ago.

Robert Bruce Adolph , a qualified Military Strategist, is a retired senior US Army Special Forces soldier. He holds graduate degrees in both National Security Studies & International Affairs and was formally trained as a counterintelligence special agent. Robert also taught university level courses in American Government, US History, and World Politics. Following his retirement from the active military, he joined the UN, subsequently seeing service in Sierra Leone, Yemen, Iraq, Egypt, Israel/Palestine, Indonesia and more, culminating in the role of Chief of the Middle East and North Africa at UN Headquarters in New York. He is a member of The Steady State.

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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Photo illustration of storm clouds gathering over the White House

Welcome to expert analysis from former senior national security leaders—spanning intelligence, diplomacy, the military, and the law. Catch up on the week’s critical insights or dive deep into the issues defining our moment.


If you feel like the guardrails are thinning, you’re not imagining it. This week’s digest exposes the widening gap between executive rhetoric and national security reality—highlighting how broken windows in global diplomacy and a “see no evil” approach at the ODNI are leaving the door wide open for autocracy.

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The Essentials


Trending

If you’re wondering why Trump suddenly wants to declare the Presidential Records Act invalid, look at today’s post that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day,” all while praising Allah. He doesn’t want these choices archived, indexed, and opened to history. #HoldFast


The Mission

“The integrity of our legal system depends on the principle that no one is above the law, including government attorneys,” said Steven Cash, Executive Director of The Steady State, and an attorney. “This proposed rule would create a mechanism for shielding Department of Justice attorneys from independent professional accountability. It is inconsistent with federal statute, and it is inconsistent with the basic expectations of a constitutional democracy.” —The Steady State this week objected to a proposed DoJ rule that undermines independent attorney oversight.

#HOLDFAST

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Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.

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