FREDONIA PROJECT SITREP 24: U.S. POLICY DEVELOPMENTS (27 Jan – 16 Apr 2026)

DATE-TIME GROUP: 04160800ZAPRIL26

FROM: EMBASSY OF FREDONIA, WASHINGTON, D.C.

TO: MFA NAGADOCHES

CLASSIFICATION: CONEOFSILENCE // FREDONIAN EYES ONLY

SUBJECT: “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL YEAR” – TRUMP’S SECOND‑TERM DOMESTIC AGENDA, TARIFFS, AND THE ADMINISTRATIVE STATE

SUMMARY:

IN ACCORDANCE WITH MFA DIRECTIVE 1826-APRIL-1, THIS EMBASSY HAS INITIATED A REGULAR SERIES OF ANALYTICAL DISPATCHES REGARDING THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SERIES, DESIGNATED “THE FREDONIA PROJECT,” WILL BE CIRCULATED UNDER STANDARD SITREP PROTOCOL. UNAUTHORIZED PUBLICATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED VIA A THIRD-PARTY ENTITY KNOWN AS “THE STEADY STATE.” PRESUMED LEAK. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

From February 2026 through March 2026, Donald Trump’s second term has been marked by a mix of legislative pushes, executive actions, policy shifts, and highly choreographed rhetoric designed to solidify last year’s trend towards authoritarianism in the form of centralized, personalized presidential power The White House frames this period as one of “historic progress,” claiming Trump has made “more progress in three weeks than they made in four years,” restored American “respect,” and delivered “record‑low” border encounters. From the outside, it looks more like a broad stress test on the US system: a deliberate effort to weaken the administrative state, use migration and crime as political organizing tools, weaponize tariffs and energy policy, and redefine the relationship between the presidency, federal agencies, and the law.

The Trump administration has issued a sweeping deregulation order requiring federal agencies to identify and roll back regulations and enforcement actions beyond explicit statutory authority. This is a systematic campaign to install Project 2025-ish plans to put the civil service under presidential control and trash any Obama‑ or Biden‑era rules. This order includes an expanding gray zone, under which enforcement depends less on an interpretation of statutes and more on White House preferences. (Ambassador comment: As with everything Trump, from the 90,000 square foot ballroom to Epic Fury, the president seeks to make the civil service of the United States reflect Trumpian values and goals. Given the history of failure of everything Trump – from real estate to casinos to steaks to a university to wine, should this new civil service triumph, it will be all form and little substance, providing few, if any, of the services the civil service is supposed to provide in support citizens of the United States.)

Immigration policy sits at the center of the Administration’s agenda. The actions that support that agenda include large‑scale deportations, tightened asylum access, and pressure on states to restrict licenses and IDs for undocumented residents. The White House routinely claims “millions” of removals and “self‑deportations,” negative net migration in 2025, and record‑low border encounters, while touting thousands of arrests and a sharp drop in fentanyl trafficking. (Ambassador comment: These numbers are complete nonsense; unsurprising given the weak link between Trump and Reality. It seems likely that the number of actions that support Trump’s policy agenda has political power within the Trump ecosystem, even as the definitions of these actions are contested. Additionally, and still unsurprisingly, the unbelievable numbers of these activities bolster Trump’s narrative, which criminalizes immigration, making extraordinary enforcement appear completely rational.)

Law‑and‑order politics extends beyond immigration. Under the “Save America Act” label, the Administration has advanced measures it describes as strengthening tools against violent and drug‑related crime and tightening election procedures, including litigation to gain access to state voter rolls. This bundle of policies ties criminal justice and immigration enforcement together, and nudges the federal government deeper into the mechanics of election administration, a function regulated at the state level. (Ambassador comment: The continuing attempts by Trump to unconstitutionally put a Federal thumb on the elections’ scales are clearly continuing apace. We assume this will continue either until the elections or until the courts rule against it. It is clearly unconstitutional, and even this Supreme Court should recognize that. Could, but may not.) Trump also created a new initiative for government efficiency, colloquially branded as a Department for Government Efficiency, or “DOGE,” with a prominent advisory role for Elon Musk. Officially, DOGE was tasked with rooting out “waste, fraud, and abuse” across federal programs and has been credited by the Administration with more than 200 billion dollars in projected savings. In fact, DOGE functioned as an instrument for reshaping the state from the inside: targeting disfavored programs, rewarding priorities aligned with presidential politics, and inviting an unusually close relationship between a politically allied billionaire and federal resource allocation. (Ambassador Comment: In the time since DOGE was created, the actual savings have proven far less substantial than DOGE and Trump claimed in February, March, April, and on and on. Through April 2025, DOGE has claimed that it saved 52.8 billion dollars; the actual amount saved is, at this point is likely far less. According to Politico, the savings were about 1.4 billion, nothing like the amount Trump, Musk, and their allies have claimed. Finally, it should be stressed that not only did the cuts not trim a ton of fat, but the federal government will likely have to hire contractors at a higher pay rate than the Federal employees Trump and company removed. The accomplishments of the Trump-Musk alliance seem to disappear when light focuses upon them.)

Perhaps the easiest thread to track as it runs through this period is Trump’s campaign against what he calls the “deep state” or “administrative state.” He now openly promises to “destroy the deep state,” “fire the unelected tyrants” in Washington, and replace “rogue bureaucrats” with “patriots.” These statements track closely with external planning documents such as Project 2025 that call for mass personnel changes, ideological screening of civil servants, and expanded presidential control over agencies traditionally considered semi‑independent. Combined with the deregulatory order, DOGE’s activities, and ongoing attacks on inspectors general and independent watchdogs, Trump’s stated plans signal an ambition not just to win elections and pass laws, but to fundamentally remake the relationship between the presidency, the bureaucracy, and the rule of law. (Ambassador Comment: As noted above, it seems likely that if the U.S. government ever replaces people and capabilities Musk shredded, the cost of the government will increase by millions of dollars. And, so, another version of Trump economics fails spectacularly; quelle surprise. And the set of inglorious failures to date keeps getting longer.)

Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 400 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.